000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070345
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TD Fourteen-E:
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 13.4N 104.9W at
07/0300 UTC, moving east-southeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is occurring from 10N to 16N
between 100W and 107W. Gradual weakening is expected, and the
depression could become a remnant low or dissipate at any time
over the next day or so. Fourteen-E will move to 12.7N 104.0W Thu
morning, become a remnant low and move to 11.9N 103.3W Thu
evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Please read the latest HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 16N95W, resumes near
13N112W and extends to a 1011 mb low centered near 10N127W to 
beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection 
is noted from 10N to 15N between 113W and 120W, from 09N to 11N 
between 125W and 129W, and from 08N to 10N west of 134W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 15N east 
of 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is progressing southward through northern portions
of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh winds are occurring north of 28N,
with strong winds noted north of 29.5N. Seas up to 8 ft are
occurring in association with these winds. Two areas of low
pressure have been analyzed offshore of Baja California north of
Punta Eugenia and a trough extends southeastward to 25N115W.
Residual N to NW swell is leading to seas of 7 to 9 ft north of
27N and west of 119N offshore of Baja California Norte. Locally
rough seas are also noted farther south, well offshore of
Jalisco. Moderate to fresh SE to NE winds and locally rough seas
are occurring well offshore of Guerrero and Michoacan due to the
influence of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. Otherwise, light to
gentle NW winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the 
remainder of the Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds will expand southward
through central portions of the Gulf of California tonight, 
reaching southern portions of the Gulf Thu night into Fri. These
winds will occur through Fri before slowly diminishing on Sat. 
Moderate to rough seas will occur in association with the winds. 
Rough seas offshore of Baja California will subside through Thu. 
Otherwise, off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, 
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas can be 
expected through this weekend. TD Fourteen E is expected to stay 
south and west of the southern Mexico offshore waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate S to W winds are occurring across the
Central and South American offshore waters. A long-period S to SW
swell is leading to seas of 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador toward
the Galapagos Islands, with the highest seas occurring south of
02N. Farther north, seas of 4 to 6 ft within S to SW swell are
noted.

For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds will develop offshore of
Costa Rica through the forecast waters offshore of Ecuador on 
Thu, with moderate winds expanding into the offshore waters from
Nicaragua through Guatemala by Fri. Fresh SW winds are expected
from 01N to 09N east of 89W Fri through Sat. Moderate to rough
seas will occur with these winds. Elsewhere, southerly swell 
will bring seas 7 to 8 ft across the Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands offshore waters through Fri before subsiding by Sat. 
Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft will occur north of 
the monsoon trough through this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section for information regarding 
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E.

Two areas of low pressure have been analyzed offshore of Baja 
California north of Punta Eugenia and a trough extends 
southeastward to 25N115W. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds
are occurring north of 27N and east of 130W, where seas of 8 to
10 ft are analyzed. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough,
moderate NE winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are occurring. South of 
the monsoon trough, fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of
8 to 11 ft are occurring surrounding a 1011 mb low centered near
10N127W. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh SE to SW winds and
moderate seas prevail south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will move to 
12.7N 104.0W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 11.9N 
103.3W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Meanwhile, fresh
to strong N winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 130W 
will slowly subside on Thu. Winds will become moderate to 
locally fresh this weekend into next week N of the monsoon trough
and W of 120W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds will occur just 
south of the monsoon trough at times through Thu, mainly north of
05N between 110W and 135W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 
rough seas look to develop east of 110W, from the equator to 10N,
Fri into this weekend.

$$
ADAMS