000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060928
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for slow development during the next day or
so, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves
generally east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph. By the latter part
of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for any further development. This system has a 
medium chance for development within the next 48 hours and 7 
days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to a 1006 mb low near 
13N106W to a 1010 mb low near 11N120W to beyond 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 12N to 
16N between 106W and 110W, and from 09N to 15N between 115W and 
123W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is noted 
from 10N to 15N between 86W to 93W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends over the waters offshore of Baja
California and a trough is analyzed over the Gulf of California.
This pattern supports gentle to locally moderate N to NW winds 
over this area, with fresh NW winds observed north of 29N and 
west of 119W. A long-period N to NW swell associated with a 
former cold front is leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 20N 
and west of 114W. Seas of 2 to 3 ft are noted in the Gulf of 
California. Elsewhere, light to gentle NW winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail across the southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, rough seas offshore of Baja California will 
slowly subside today into Thu. Fresh to strong N to NW winds 
will develop across northern portions of the Gulf of California 
later this morning, with fresh to locally strong NW winds 
spreading southward through the rest of the Gulf tonight into 
Thu as a strong low pressure system moves through the 
southwestern U.S. These winds will continue into Sat, and rough 
seas will accompany the wind. Otherwise, off the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico, gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas can be expected through this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate W to SW winds are occurring offshore of Guatemala 
through Costa Rica as Hurricane Rafael in the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea strengthens and moves northwestward away from the
region. A long-period SW swell is promoting seas of 5 to 6 ft in
the aforementioned area. Farther south, light to gentle SW winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted offshore of Ecuador. Light winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring to the north of the monsoon 
trough.

For the forecast, moderate SW winds will develop from 02N to 10N
east of 85W on Thu, with widespread moderate to fresh SW winds 
and locally rough seas occurring in the aforementioned area Fri 
through this weekend. Elsewhere, southerly swell will bring seas 
to 7 ft across the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands offshore 
waters through Fri before subsiding by Sat. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected north of the monsoon trough 
through this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section for information regarding 
Invest EP93.

High pressure dominates the offshore waters north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring along the
periphery of the ridge, across most areas west of 120W. A long-
period N to NW swell associated with a former cold front is 
leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft across the aforementioned area,
with seas up to 11 ft occurring north of 27N and east of 125W. 
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas of 8 to 
10 ft are occurring near Invest EP93, from 10N to 14N between 
103W and 108W. South of the monsoon trough, fresh to locally
strong SW winds are occurring surrounding a 1010 mb low centered
near 11N120W. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh SE to SW 
winds and moderate seas prevail south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, away from EP93, rough seas and moderate to
fresh NE winds north of the monsoon trough will slowly subside 
through Thu. Winds will freshen again this weekend into next week
across the previously mentioned area. Moderate to fresh to 
locally strong SW winds will occur just south of the monsoon 
trough at times through Thu, mainly north of 05N between 110W and
135W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and rough seas look to 
develop east of 110W, from the equator to 10N, Fri into this 
weekend.

$$
ADAMS