000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051555 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP93): Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while it drifts eastward. By the latter part of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for any further development. This system has a medium chance for development within the next 48 hours and 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Nicaragua near 12N86W to a low pressure near 12N108W 1007 mb, EP93, to another low pressure near 10N122W 1011 mb to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 119W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 86W and 109W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure extends across the Baja California and Gulf of California offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters, with locally fresh winds off the Cabo San Lazaro. North to northwesterly swell is bringing 8 to 10 ft seas to waters N of 21N. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate N winds prevail in the Gulf with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle NW winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate winds will prevail across most of the Baja California waters with fresh winds pulsing south of Punta Eugenia today. By Wed, mostly light to gentle winds can be expected with moderate winds in the far NW region of these waters. Northwesterly swell bringing rough seas to Baja California offshore waters will persist through Wed before subsiding by Thu. Fresh to strong NW winds will develop across the Gulf of California Wed through the end of the week. Rough seas are expected over this area. Otherwise, off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh W to SW winds persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica through Panama, from 03N to 10N. This is due to Tropical Storm Rafael in the southwestern Caribbean slowly strengthening and moving north away from the area. A long- period SW swell is promoting seas of 5 to 6 ft in the aforementioned area. Farther south, light to gentle SW winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail offshore of Ecuador. Light winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted to the north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the monsoon trough will slowly move northward as Tropical Storm Rafael in the southwestern Caribbean moves northward over the next few days. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SW to W winds south of the trough and north of 04N, in the waters offshore of Nicaragua through Colombia, through today. Winds will become gentle to moderate by Wed through Thu. Winds will freshen in the aforementioned area in addition to offshore Ecuador from Thu night through Sat night. Elsewhere, southerly swell will bring seas to 7 ft across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters from Tue night through Fri before subsiding by Sat. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected north of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for information regarding Invest EP93. High pressure extends across the waters to 15N. Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of the monsoon trough to 31N. N to NW swell continues to move across the area, with 8 to 11 ft seas extending as far south as the monsoon trough near 09N. Near Invest EP93, winds are fresh to strong with seas 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds are prevailing south of the monsoon trough to 03N and E of 120W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas to 7 ft. For the forecast, away from EP93, rough seas from N to NW swell will persist across most areas north of the monsoon trough. The swell will progress as far south as 08N today, before seas slowly subside by Thu night. Fresh NE winds will spread farther south through today and locally strong winds will occur north of 27N and east of 120W. The moderate to fresh winds will continue near the monsoon trough through Thu. By midweek, N swell will lead to rough seas south of the monsoon trough, generally between 110W to 135W. $$ AReinhart