000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Nov 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP93): An area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing intermittent showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development, and an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a tropical depression. The low is expected to move slowly eastward over the next few days. This system has a high chance for development within the next 48 hours and 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 102W, from 06N to 16N, moving slowly westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis from 08N to 13N. A tropical wave is along 109W from 05N to 16N, moving westward at 5 kt. A low pressure, EP93, is along this wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 108W and 111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Nicaragua near 11N86W to a low pressure near 11N109W 1007 mb to another low pressure near 11N127W 1009 mb to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 10N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 88W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure extends across the Baja California and Gulf of California offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters. North to northwesterly swell is bringing 8 to 10 ft seas to waters N of Cabo Lazaro with 6 to 7 ft seas S of Cabo Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong N winds, up to 30 kt, prevailing in the northern Gulf with seas 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevailing elsewhere in the Gulf with 3 to 5 ft seas, highest in the entrance of the Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle NW winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate winds will prevail across the Baja California waters with fresh winds pulsing south of Punta Eugenia tonight. By Wed, mostly light to gentle winds can be expected with moderate winds in the far NW region of these offshore waters. Northwesterly swell bringing rough seas to Baja California offshore waters will persist through Wed before subsiding by Thu. Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through tonight before returning Wed through the end of the week. The rough seas in the Gulf of California will subside tonight. Otherwise, off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The latest scatterometer depicted moderate to fresh W to SW winds persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica through Colombia, from 03N to 08N east of 86W. This is due to Tropical Storm Rafael in the southwestern Caribbean slowly strengthening and slowly moving north away from the area. A long- period SW swell is promoting seas of 5 to 7 ft in the aforementioned area. Farther south, light to gentle SW winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail offshore of Ecuador. Light winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted to the north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the monsoon trough will slowly move northward as Tropical Storm Rafael in the southwestern Caribbean moves northward over the next few days. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SW to W winds south of the trough and north of 04N, in the waters offshore of Nicaragua through Colombia, through Tue. Winds will become gentle to moderate by Wed through Thu. Winds will freshen in the aforementioned area again Thu night through Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue offshore of Ecuador. Southerly swell will bring seas to 7 ft across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters from Tue night through Fri before subsiding by Sat. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected north of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for information regarding Invest EP93. High pressure extends across the waters to 16N. Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of the ITCZ to 31N. N to NW swell continues to move across the area, with 8 to 12 ft seas extending as far south as the ITCZ near 10N. Seas reaching 12 ft are near 30N125W. Near EP93, winds are fresh to strong with seas 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are prevailing south of the monsoon trough to 03N and E of 120W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas to 7 ft. For the forecast, away from EP93, rough seas from N to NW swell will persist across most areas north of the monsoon trough. The N to NW swell will progress as far south as 08N by Tue, before seas slowly subside by Thu night. Fresh NE winds will spread farther south through Tue and locally strong winds will occur north of 27N and east of 122W. The moderate to fresh winds will continue north of the monsoon trough through Wed night. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SW winds can be expected south of the monsoon trough Tue into Wed before diminishing Thu. By midweek, N swell will lead to rough seas south of the monsoon trough, generally between 110W to 135W. $$ AReinhart