000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041551
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
struggle to produce organized convection. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for development, and a
slight increase in the organization of the shower and
thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a tropical
depression. The low is expected to move slowly eastward over the
next few days. This system has a high chance for development 
within the next 48 hours and 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 101W, from 06N to 16N, moving slowly 
westward at 5 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave
axis from 08N to 11N.

A tropical wave is along 110W from 06N to 16N, moving westward at
5 to 10 kt. A low pressure, EP93, is along this wave. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 108W and
112W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to a low pressure near 11N110W 1007 mb to another low
pressure near 12N126W 1010 mb to 11N128W. The ITCZ extends from 
11N128W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 14N between 84W and 128W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends across the Baja California and Gulf of
California offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over
the Baja California offshore waters. North to northwesterly 
swell is bringing 8 to 10 ft seas to waters N of Cabo Lazaro with
6 to 7 ft seas S of Cabo Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, fresh
to strong N winds prevail in the northern Gulf with seas 5 to 7
ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevailing elsewhere in the
Gulf with 2 to 4 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle NW winds 
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate winds will prevail across the Baja
California waters with fresh winds pulsing south of Punta Eugenia
tonight. By Wed, mostly light to gentle winds can be expected
with moderate winds in the far NW region of these offshore
waters. Northwesterly swell bringing rough seas to Baja
California offshore waters will persist through Wed before
subsiding by Thu. Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail in the 
Gulf of California through tonight as the front dissipates. 
Otherwise, off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, 
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
through the forecast period.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh W to SW winds persist across the offshore
waters of Costa Rica through Colombia, from 03N to 08N east of 
86W, as Tropical Depression Eighteen in the southwestern 
Caribbean slowly strengthens. Strong winds may be occurring in 
the Gulf of Panama. A long- period SW swell is promoting seas of 
5 to 7 ft in the aforementioned area. Farther south, light to 
gentle SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail offshore of 
Ecuador. Light winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted to the north
of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the monsoon trough will slowly move northward
as Tropical Depression Eighteen in the southwestern Caribbean 
strengthens and moves northward through the middle of this week. 
This pattern will support moderate to fresh SW to W winds south 
of the trough and north of 04N, in the waters offshore of 
Nicaragua through Colombia through Tue, with winds becoming 
moderate by the middle of the week. Winds will freshen in the 
aforementioned area again by Thu into Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft will continue 
offshore of Ecuador, with light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 
6 ft north of the monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section for information regarding 
Invest EP93.

High pressure extends across the waters to 16N. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted north of the ITCZ in the wake of a dissipated
cold front. N to NW swell continues to move across the area, 
with 8 to 12 ft seas extending as far south as the ITCZ near 
10N. Seas will peak at 12 ft north of 28N on Tue morning. Moderate
to fresh SW winds are prevailing south of the monsoon trough to 
03N and E of 120W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail 
with seas to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, away from EP93, rough seas associated with the
former cold front will persist across most areas north of the 
monsoon trough, and will be reinforced by the new N swell for 
areas north of 20N through today. The N swell will progress as 
far south as 10N by Tue, before seas slowly subside through the 
middle of the week. Fresh NE winds will spread farther south 
through Tue and locally strong winds will occur north of 27N and
east of 122W. Fresh NE winds will continue north of the monsoon 
trough into Wed before diminishing for the rest of the forecast 
period. By midweek, N swell will lead to rough seas south of the 
monsoon trough, generally between 110W to 135W.

$$
AReinhart