000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Nov 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP93): An area of low pressure located well to the south of the southern tip of Baja California is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some additional development of this slow-moving system, and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days. The low is expected to begin an eastward drift in a few days. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 100W, from 06N to 16N, moving slowly westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 10N between 98W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 10N133W. The ITCZ then extends from 10N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 88W and 93W, from 10N to 14N between 115W and 124W, and from 08N to 11N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is progressing southward over the northern waters today, extending from 32N112W to 26N124W to 30N138W. Recent scatterometer satellite data show widespread fresh NW winds occurring offshore of Baja California north of 26N, and strong winds occurring north of 28N and west of 118W. Fresh to strong W to SW gap winds are noted in the Gulf of California ahead of the front, with fresh to strong NW winds occurring behind the front. A fresh NW swell is progressing southward through the aforementioned area with seas of 8 to 10 ft, and seas of 11 to 12 ft occurring north of 29N. Farther south, the residual N swell from a former cold front is producing rough seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 17N and west of 112W. Elsewhere, light to gentle NW winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to progress southward over the next couple of days through the waters offshore of Baja California and the Gulf of California. Fresh NW winds will expand farther south tonight into Mon for areas north of Cabo San Lazaro. Strong W gap winds in the Gulf of California will continue into Mon morning before turning to the NW, and widespread fresh to strong NW winds are anticipated across much of the Gulf Mon morning into Tue morning. The new NW swell will reinforce rough seas across the waters offshore of Baja California, with peak seas of 12 to 14 ft north of Punta Eugenia tonight into Mon. Otherwise, off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer satellite data show fresh SW winds occurring offshore of Costa Rica through Colombia, from 03N to 08N east of 88W, as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen in the southwestern Caribbean slowly strengthens. A long-period SW swell is promoting seas of 7 to 9 ft in the aforementioned area. Farther south, moderate SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail offshore of Ecuador. Light winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted to the north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the monsoon trough will slowly move northward while Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen in the southwestern Caribbean strengthens and moves northward to northwestward through the middle of this week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SW to W winds south of the trough and north of 04N, in the waters offshore of Nicaragua through Colombia through Tue, with winds becoming moderate by the middle of the week. Winds will freshen in the aforementioned area again by late-week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft will continue offshore of Ecuador, with light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for information regarding Invest EP93. A cold front is progressing southward over the northern waters today, extending from 32N112W to 26N124W to 30N138W. Fresh N to NE winds are occurring north of the front and east of 133W, with locally strong winds noted north of 27N and east of 124W. A new N swell is leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft in the aforementioned area. Farther south, the residual N swell from a former cold front is producing rough seas of 8 to 10 ft for most areas north of the monsoon trough. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to locally strong NE winds north of the monsoon trough to 20N between 120W and 130W, and as far north as 25N west of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW winds are noted north of 05N and east of 95W, where seas of 7 to 8 ft are occurring. Another region of moderate to fresh SE winds, observed by scatterometer satellite data, are occurring across portions of the area bound by 01N to 09N between 130W and 140W. Otherwise, moderate SE and SW winds and slight to moderate seas prevail south of the monsoon trough and west of 100W. For the forecast, away from EP93, rough seas associated with the former cold front will persist across most areas north of the monsoon trough, and will be reinforced by the new N swell for areas north of 20N through Mon. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected north of 27N and east of 130W. The N swell will progress as far south as 15N by Tue, before seas slowly subside through the middle of the week. Fresh NE winds will spread farther south through Mon as the front progresses southward, and locally strong winds will occur north of 27N and east of 125W. Fresh NE winds will continue north of the monsoon trough into Wed before diminishing for the rest of the forecast period. By midweek, N swell will lead to rough seas south of the monsoon trough, generally between 110W to 135W. $$ ADAMS