000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Nov 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Lane is centered near 11.3N 130.1W at 02/1500 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater within 45 NM in the SW quadrant and 60 NM in the NW quadrant with seas to 12 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 127W and 133W. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today, but weakening is forecast on Sunday through early next week. Lane will move to 11.3N 131.0W this evening, 11.3N 132.2W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 11.4N 133.6W Sun evening, become a remnant low and move to 11.4N 135.0W Mon morning, 11.5N 136.2W Mon evening, and 11.5N 137.4W Tue morning. Lane will dissipate early Wed. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Thirteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W, from 05N to 16, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N to 14N between 95W and 98W. A tropical wave has been repositioned and is analyzed along 111W, from 05N to 16N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 110W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N123W. Aside from the convection described above with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 13N between 99W and 105W and from 10N to 14N between 115W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An increasing NW swell is promoting rough to very rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte, N of 24N. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are occurring offshore of Baja California Norte, supported by a trough centered over the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted offshore of Jalisco and Michoacan. Fresh to strong N winds and seas to 8 ft are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as the pressure gradient tightens between troughing over the Bay of Campeche, a passing tropical wave and the monsoon trough to the south. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the Gulf of California. Moderate northerly winds prevail elsewhere, with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NW winds will continue north of Cabo San Lazaro through today, with moderate winds spreading farther south through most of the offshore waters of Baja California into Sun. The NW swell will continue to promote rough to very rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte today, with rough seas reaching Baja California Sur this afternoon. Fresh to strong N gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. A cold front will move through the northern waters late tonight through Sun, with fresh NW winds developing offshore of Baja California Norte early on Sun. Strong NW winds will be possible north of Punta Eugenia by Sun afternoon. The front will generate a surge in seas across the Baja Norte waters Sun afternoon through Sun night, with seas across Baja Norte peaking at 12 to 14 ft. Fresh to strong W gap winds will pulse across north and central portions of the Gulf of California ahead of the front tonight through Sun evening, then become fresh to strong N winds behind the front Mon through early Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, generally north of 03N and east of 90W. Seas in this region are 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted offshore of Ecuador. To the north of the trough, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh SW to W winds will continue south of 10N through at least Mon night as broad low pressure develops across the southwestern Caribbean. Increasing seas associated with these winds will occur across the waters south of 10N through Sun and combine with cross equatorial swell leading to seas to 6 to 9 ft through Mon night. Seas will slowly subside through early next week. By the middle of next week, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will occur across the offshore forecast waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for information regarding Tropical Storm Lane. A 1027 mb high is located NW of the region near 36N151W, and ridging prevails across much of the East Pacific forecast waters north of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 are occurring near a trough currently W of our area from 12N to 20N west of 128W. Moderate NE to N winds are noted along the periphery of the ridge, generally north of 20N and west of the Mexico Offshore Zones. A northerly swell associated with a former cold front over Baja California Norte is supporting rough seas north of 17N. Elsewhere, fresh SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough and east of 95W. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail to the west of 115W south of the trough. For the forecast, away from Tropical Storm Lane, the northerly swell associated with the former front will continue to progress southward through this weekend, with rough seas expected north of 12N by early Sun. Fresh NE winds will continue north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W into early next week. A cold front will move through the northern waters tonight into Sun, leading to fresh to strong N to NE winds north of 20N into early next week. Reinforcing northerly swell will move into the area waters Sun behind the front and continue through early next week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure has developed well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible through the early to middle part of next week while the system drifts generally eastward to east- northeastward. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some further development of this system is possible over the next few days and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week while the system drifts generally eastward to east- northeastward. $$ ADAMS