000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Nov 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E: Tropical Depression Thirteen-E 
is centered near 11.2N 128.4W at 01/2100 UTC, moving west at 6 
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas to
10 ft are occurring within 100 NM to the north of the center.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is ongoing within 60 NM
to the south and east of center, and within 45 NM to the north
and west. Thirteen-E will move to 11.2N 129.3W Sat morning, 
11.2N 130.5W Sat afternoon, 11.3N 131.9W Sun morning, 11.3N 
133.5W Sun afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 11.3N 
135.1W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
and the latest Thirteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public 
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 95W, from 04N northward into Oaxaca, 
moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to locally strong 
convection is occurring from 10N to 15N between 90W and 97W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 110W, from 03N to 15N, moving 
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N 
to 13N between 109W and 112W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N136W. Aside from 
the convection described above with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate to locally strong convection is occurring from 07N to 
10N east of 86W, and from 09N to 11N between 100W and 106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds are occurring offshore of Baja California 
Norte surrounding a trough that extends from 28N117W westward to
26N134W. Recent scatterometer satellite data show locally fresh 
NW winds offshore of Jalisco and Michoacan associated with a 
decaying trough. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong N winds and
seas to 7 ft are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as the 
pressure gradient tightens between troughing over the Bay of 
Campeche, a passing tropical wave and the monsoon trough to the 
south. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the Gulf
of California.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds will
continue north of Cabo San Lazaro through Sat, with moderate
winds spreading farther south through most of the offshore waters
of Baja California into Sun. An increasing NW swell will continue
to promote rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte tonight,
with rough seas reaching Baja California Sur early on Sat. Fresh
to strong N gap winds will continue across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Sat. A stronger cold front will move through 
the northern waters Sat night through Sun, with fresh NW winds 
developing offshore of Baja California Norte early on Sun. Strong
NW winds will be possible north of Punta Eugenia by Sun 
afternoon. The front will generate a surge in seas across the 
Baja Norte waters Sun afternoon through Sun night, with seas 
across Baja Norte peaking at 12 to 14 ft. Fresh to locally strong
W gap winds will develop across north and central portions of 
the Gulf of California ahead of the front Sat afternoon through 
Sun evening, then become fresh to strong N winds behind the front
Mon through early Tue.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate to locally
fresh SW to W winds south of the monsoon trough, generally north
of 02N and east of 92W. Seas in this region are 6 to 9 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted 
offshore of Ecuador. To the north of the trough, gentle to 
moderate winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SW to W winds will
continue south of 10N through at least Mon as broad low pressure
develops across the southwestern Caribbean. Increasing seas 
associated with these winds will occur across the waters south of
10N through Sun and combine with cross equatorial swell leading
to seas to 6 to 9 ft through Mon night. Seas will slowly subside
through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section for information regarding 
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E.

A 1030 mb high is located NW of the region near 34N153W, and 
ridging prevails across much of the East Pacific forecast waters 
north of the monsoon trough. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and
seas of 8 to 11 are occurring along a trough analyzed from 
17N136W to 14N140W. Moderate NE to N winds are noted along the 
periphery of the ridge, generally north of 20N and west of the 
Mexico Offshore Zones. A northerly swell associated with a
former cold front over Baja California Norte is supporting rough
seas north of 22N. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SW winds are 
occurring south of the monsoon trough and east of 100W. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail to the west 
of 100W south of the trough.

For the forecast, the northerly swell associated with the former
front will progress southward through this weekend, with rough 
seas expected north of 20N by early Sat, and north of 12N by 
early Sun. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue north 
of the monsoon trough and west of 120W into Sat morning. A 
stronger cold front will move through the northern waters Sat 
night into Sun, leading to fresh to strong N to NE winds north of
20N into early next week. Reinforcing northerly swell will move 
into the area waters Sun behind the front and continue through 
early next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could 
form well offshore of southwestern Mexico during the early to 
middle part of next week. Afterward, some slow development is 
possible while the system drifts slowly east-northeastward.

$$
ADAMS