000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A tropical wave is analyzed along 127W, from 05N to 17N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. A 1008 mb surface low pressure center is along the wave axis near 11N127W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 122W and 136W. This activity has changed little in organization tonight. At this time, fresh to strong winds are noted near the low, with seas to 10 ft. Some further development of this system, however, is possible during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly west- northwestward. By late this weekend, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development. This system has a medium chance for tropical development in 48 hours and 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W, from 05N northward to Mexico, moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 91W and 97W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 107W, from 04N to 15N, moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 104W and 111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N134W. A low pres is analyzed near 14N138W, 1011 mb. Aside from the convection described above with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm on either side of the boundary E of 90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad NW to SE oriented ridge extends into the offshore waters of Mexico to near 20N110W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters and southward to between Cabo Corrientes and the Revillagigedo Islands, while light to gentle winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong winds are pulsing across the Tehuantepec region. Light to gentle NW to W winds generally prevail elsewhere from southeast Jalisco to Puerto Angel. NW swell moving through the region is producing seas of 5 to 7 ft west of 110W, with 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere. Seas inside the Gulf of California are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, a weakening cold front will move into the Baja Norte waters today, with Baja offshore winds south of the front diminishing slightly, and becoming moderate to fresh north of the front through Sat night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will develop in the Baja California Norte waters north of Punta Eugenia into Sun evening in the vicinity of the next cold front that will move across the area. This will generate a surge in seas across the Baja Norte waters Sun afternoon through Sun night, with seas across Baja Norte peaking at 12-14 ft. Fresh to strong westerly gap winds will develop across north and central portions of the Gulf of California ahead of the front Sat afternoon through Sun evening, then become fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front Mon through early Tue. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through midday Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong W to SW winds prevail south of 10N, with light and variable winds to the north of 10N. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in southerly swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present along the coast of Central America from 04N to 14N and E of 91W affecting the adjacent coastal waters. Expect winds and seas to be locally higher near this activity. For the forecast, monsoonal fresh SW to W winds south of 10N will continue through Mon as broad low pressure develops across the southwestern Caribbean. These winds will increase the seas across the waters south of 10N through Sun and combine with cross equatorial swell to build seas to 6-9 ft from this afternoon through Sun night, before diminishing very slightly through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on the Special Feature low currently near 127W. High pressure of 1030 mb is centered NW of the area, and extends a broad ridge to the south and into the tropics. A weakening cold front is moving southward and has reached 29N, between 119W and 139W. To the south of the ridge, fresh to strong winds extend from 25N to the monsoon trough along about 10N, and west of 125W. North of 21N to the weakening front, gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail, while gentle to moderate northerly winds are found north of the front. Seas north of 21N and west of 120W are 5 to 8 ft in fading NW to N swell. Seas between 10N to 20N and W of 120W are 8 to 10 ft in NE swell. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. For the forecast, the front will dissipate within the next 24 hours. Fresh to strong winds between high pressure across the northern waters and the aforementioned monsoon trough will prevail from roughly 10N to 20N and west of 120W through Sat. Large northerly swell will continue to spread south of 30N today, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching to most of the waters north of 10N and west of 110W by Sat night. Reinforcing northerly swell is expected to move into the area waters Sun behind the next cold front, and continue through early next week. $$ ERA