517 
AXPZ20 KNHC 010244
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Nov 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Satellite-derived winds indicate that the area of low pressure 
located over 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula has become better defined, but still
disorganized. At this time, fresh to strong winds are noted near
the low, with seas to 10 ft. Some further development of this 
system is possible during the next couple of days while the low 
moves slowly to the west-northwest. By late this weekend, 
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive to
development. This system has a medium chance for tropical 
development in 48 hours and 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 93W, from 05N northward to Mexico, 
moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07N to 14N between 92W and 97W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 106W, from 05N to 17N, moving 
west near 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N 
to 12N between 100W and 110W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 126W, from 04N to 17N, moving 
west at 5 to 10 kt. A 1008 mb surface low pressure center is
along the wave axis near 11N126W. Scattered to numerous moderate
to strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 123W and 
133W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N89W to 10N133W. A
surface trough is analyzed along 138W from 10N to 15N. Aside from
the convection described above with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is noted within 240 nm on either side of the
boundary E of 90W, and between 113W and 121W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad NW to SE oriented ridge extends into the offshore waters
of Mexico to near 20N110W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds 
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters and southward 
to between Cabo Corrientes and the Revillagigedo Islands, while
light to gentle winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. 
Light to gentle NW to W winds generally prevail elsewhere from 
southeast Jalisco to Puerto Angel. NW swell moving through the 
region is producing seas of 5 to 8 ft west of 110W, with 4 to 6 
ft seas elsewhere. Seas inside the Gulf of California are 2 to 4 
ft.

For the forecast, NW swell from offshore of Baja California to 
the Revillagigedo Islands will gradually fade through Fri, while 
moderate northerly winds continue. A weakening cold front will 
move into the Baja Norte waters late Fri morning, with Baja 
offshore winds south of the front diminishing slightly, and 
becoming moderate to fresh north of the front through Sat night. 
Strong to near gale-force northerly winds will develop late Sat 
through Sun across the entire length of the California coast, and
extend fresh to strong winds in the Baja Norte waters north of 
Punta Eugenia into Sun evening before shifting west of the area. 
This will generate a surge in seas across the Baja Norte waters 
Sun afternoon through Sun night, with seas across Baja Norte 
peaking at 12-14 ft. Fresh to strong westerly gap winds will 
develop across north and central portions of the Gulf of 
California ahead of the front Sat afternoon through Sun evening, 
then become fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front Mon
through early Tue. Moderate northerly gap winds across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec today will increase to fresh to strong tonight 
through midday Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate W to SW winds prevail south of 10N today, 
with light and variable winds to the north of 10N, except across
the Papagayo region where gentle to moderate NE gap winds are 
occurring. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in southerly swell. Scattered to  
numerous showers and thunderstorms are present along the coast of
Central America from 05N to 14N and E of 90W affecting the
adjacent coastal waters. Expect winds and seas to be locally 
higher near this activity.

For the forecast, monsoonal SW to W winds south of 10N are
expected to freshen tonight through Fri and continue through Mon
as broad low pressure develops across the southwestern 
Caribbean. These winds will increase the seas across the waters
south of 10N through Sun and combine with cross equatorial swell
to build seas to 6-9 ft Fri afternoon through Sun night, before 
diminishing very slightly through Tue. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Special Feature low
currently near 126W.

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered NW of the area, and extends
a broad ridge to the south and into the tropics. A cold front is
moving southward and has reached 30N, between 128W and 140W. To 
the south of the ridge, fresh to strong winds extend from 20N to
the monsoon trough along about 16N, and west of 120W. North of 
21N to the cold front gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail, 
while gentle to moderate northerly winds are found north of the 
front. Seas north of 21N and west of 120W are 5 to 8 ft in fading
NW to N swell. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate 
winds prevail between 90W and 130W. Seas, NW to N swell of 7 to 
11 ft covers the waters along a wide band fr there are 5-7 ft in 
mixed swell.

For the forecast, the cold front will sink southward and reach
near 25N by late Fri before dissipating. Fresh to strong winds 
between high pressure across the northern waters and the 
aforementioned monsoon trough will prevail from roughly 10N to 
23N and west of 120W through Sat. New large northerly swell will
spread south of 30N by tonight, with seas of 8 ft or greater 
reaching to most of the waters north of 10N and west of 110W by 
Sat night. Reinforcing northerly swell is expected to move into
the area waters Sun into early next week. 

$$
ERA