000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310741
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 90W, from 04N northward to El Salvador
Guatemala border, moving west around 5 kt. Numerous moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 77W 
and 90W.

A tropical wave is near 104W, from 02N to 15N, moving west at 5
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
from 06N to 14N between 98W and 109W.

A tropical wave is near 123W, from 04N to 17N, moving west at 
around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N to 14N between 117W and 127W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 10N115W to low pressure, Invest EP91, near 13N136W to 
09N140W. Other than the convection described above associated 
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 06N to 10N between 90W and 97W, from 09N to 13N between 109W
and 115W, and from 12N to 15N between 131W and 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW-SE oriented ridge dominates the offshore waters of Mexico.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail. Large NW swell of 7 to 9 ft 
prevails west of 110W including offshore Baja California, with 4 
to 6 ft seas elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, then increase to fresh to 
strong tonight through Fri night. Large NW swell offshore Baja 
California will slowly decay today. Looking ahead, two new areas 
of large NW swell are likely to impact the waters offshore Baja 
California starting Fri and continuing into early next week, 
associated with the next cold fronts. Winds are likely to funnel 
through middle and northern Baja California passes into the Gulf 
of California and increase to fresh to strong Sat night through 
Sun night, with moderate to fresh NW winds spreading across that 
Gulf into early next week. Similar winds are possible from 
offshore Punta Eugenia northward Sun and Sun night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas are mainly 4 to 6
ft in southerly swell. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are 
present across portions of the offshore waters as described in 
the tropical waves section above, with locally higher winds and 
seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, 
freshening south of the monsoon starting late today. Mainly 
moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly swell will continue 
to propagate across the offshore forecast waters, building to 
around 8 ft south of the monsoon trough Fri into the start of 
next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure, Invest EP91, at 1008 mb, is embedded in the 
monsoon trough near 13N136W, and inducing convection that is 
described in the Monsoon Trough section above. To the north of 
this feature, extending to 21N and west of 130W, widespread 
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring due to the 
pressure gradient between the low and high pressure building 
south from the North Pacific. 

Another broad and weak low pressure is associated with a 
tropical wave analyzed near 123W as described more above. 
Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are near this low. Moderate to 
fresh trades prevail elsewhere from 10N to 24N and west of 118W, 
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds are 
south of it to 03N between 90W and 108W with gentle to moderate 
southerly flow elsewhere. For seas, NW to N swell of 7 to 11 ft 
covers the waters along a wide band from 11N to 24N.

For the forecast, any tropical development of Invest EP91 will be
slow to occur during the next few days as it moves W at 10 to 15
kt. The low will cross into the Central Pacific basin by the
weekend. Meanwhile, some tropical development of the tropical 
wave near 123W is possible during the next few days while the low
moves slowly to the west- northwest. By the end of the week, 
however, upper- level winds should become less conducive for 
development.

Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds between high pressure across 
the northern waters and the aforementioned lows will prevail 
from roughly 10N to 23N and west of 120W through Sat. For seas, 
the area of NW to N swell will gradually become confined to the 
trade wind belt where the area of fresh to strong winds will be. 
A new set of large northerly swell will spread south of 30N by 
tonight, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching to most of the 
waters north of 10N and west of 110W by Sat night. A reinforcing 
set is likely to drop south of 30N Sun into early next week. 
Fresh to strong winds are likely extend from offshore southern 
California to the north central waters Sun through Mon, as a cold
front moves through NE waters.

$$
Konarik