000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301942 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Oct 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 87.5W, from 04N northward across the Gulf of Fonseca, drifting slowly west around 5 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 89W. A tropical wave is near 101W/102W, from 02N to 15N, moving slowly west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 97W and 107W. A tropical wave is near 120W, from 04N to 17N, drifting slowly west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 115W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 09N95W to 13N118W to 10N122W to low pressure, Invest EP91, near 12N134W to beyond 09N140W. Other than the convection described above associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 90W and 97W, from 09N to 13N between 107W and 111W, and widely from 05.5N to 15.5N between 124W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW-SE oriented ridge dominates the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to fresh N winds are in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere under the ridge. Large NW swell of 7 to 11 ft prevails west of 110W including offshore Baja California, with 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu, briefly increasing to fresh to strong Thu night through Fri night. Large NW swell offshore Baja California will slowly decay into Thu night. Looking ahead, two new areas of large NW swell are likely to impact the waters offshore Baja California starting Fri through the weekend and into early next week, associated with the next cold front. Winds may funnel through middle and northern Baja California passes into the Gulf of California and increase to fresh to strong Sat night through Sun night, with moderate to fresh NW winds spreading across that Gulf into early next week. Similar winds are possible from offshore Punta Eugenia northward Sun and Sun night. Meanwhile, winds may pulse to moderate to fresh near Cabo San Lucas and near Cabo Corrientes through the next several days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are likely present across the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are present across portions of the offshore waters as described in the tropical waves section above, with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds in the Papagayo region will diminish late tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, freshening south of the monsoon starting Thu, then possibly becoming strong for the end of the week into the weekend. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters, likely building to around 8 ft south of the monsoon trough Fri through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure, Invest EP91, at 1007 mb, is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N134W, and inducing convection that is described in the Monsoon Trough section above. To the north and west of this feature, extending to 24N and west of 129W, widespread fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring due to the pressure gradient between the low and high pressure building south from the North Pacific. Another broad and weak low pressure is associated with a tropical wave analyzed near 121W as described more above. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft are near this low. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere from 10N to 24N and west of 118W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds are south of it to 03N between 90W and 105W with gentle to moderate southerly flow elsewhere. For seas, NW to N swell of 7 to 11 ft covers the waters roughly west of a line from the Revillagigedo Islands to 10N135W. For the forecast, some development of Invest EP91 is possible during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at about 15 kt. This system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Basin by the end of the week. Meanwhile, some development of the tropical wave near 121W is possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly to the west- northwest. By the end of the week, however, upper-level winds should become less conducive for development. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds between high pressure across the northern waters and the aforementioned lows will pulse from roughly 10N to 23N and west of 120W through at least early Sat. For seas, the area of NW to N swell will gradually become confined to the trade wind belt where the area of fresh to strong winds will be. A new set of large northerly swell is likely to spread south of 30N by late Thu, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching to most of the waters north of 10N and west of 110W by Sat night. A reinforcing set may drop south of 30N Sun into early next week. Fresh to strong winds may extend from offshore southern California to the north central waters Sun through Mon. $$ Lewitsky