000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290741
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Oct 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 91W from 03N northward to Guatemala, 
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 05N to 11N between 84W and 93W.

A tropical wave is near 102W from 03N northward to Guerrero, 
moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 08N to 13N between 99W and 108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 08N100W to low pressure, Invest EP91, near 11N130W. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 
84W and from 07N to 13N between 116W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are 9 to 
12 ft. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge dominates the offshore 
forecast waters of Mexico producing light to gentle NW winds 
across the remainder of the offshore waters, except fresh to
locally offshore Baja California and in the northern Gulf of 
California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell outside of the 
Tehuantepec region, except building to 8 to 12 ft offshore Baja 
California in new NW swell. In most of the Gulf of California,
seas are 1 to 3 ft, but 4 to 6 ft seas are occurring in the
northern Gulf.

For the forecast, strong northerly winds will persist in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec today, then diminish to fresh tonight. Winds 
will then weaken further starting Wed, before increasing back to 
fresh to locally strong Thu night through Fri night. High 
pressure surging southward offshore Baja California will lead to 
fresh to strong W to NW winds W of Baja California and over the 
northern Gulf of California later today. NW swell will also 
spread offshore Baja California, with seas reaching 12 ft north 
of Cabo San Lazaro later into tonight. Winds should diminish to 
moderate across these areas Wed, while seas slowly subside into 
Thu. Looking ahead, a new area of large NW swell is likely to 
impact the waters offshore Baja California starting Fri through 
at least Sat night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds are present across the Papagayo region. 
Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas are 
mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell. Scattered thunderstorms are
present offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica as described in
the monsoon trough and tropical waves sections above.

For the forecast, fresh offshore winds will pulse across the 
Papagayo region today, before diminishing to moderate tonight 
into Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, 
freshening south of the monsoon starting Thu, then possibly 
becoming strong for the end of the week. Mainly moderate seas in 
cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate 
across the offshore forecast waters, potentially building to near
8 ft south of the monsoon trough Fri into the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is along 135W from 18N to 23N. Fresh to strong 
winds are present across most waters N of 18N and W of 130W due 
to the tight pressure gradient between the trough and high 
pressure building into the northern waters. 

Seas of 8 to 13 ft in mixed NW to N swell are present N of a 
line from 26N116W to 20N131W to 11N140W. 

Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure of 1007 mb, Invest EP91,
located more than 1400 nautical miles southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula near 11N128W is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with fresh winds. 
Also, a weak area of low pressure about 1000 nautical miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is
producing similar conditions. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 
7 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, the surface trough will shift W and gradually
dissipate into mid-week. However, the tight pressure gradient
will remain and support fresh to strong winds for waters N of 20N
and W of 130W into Wed night. Large NW swell will continue to 
spread across the waters north of 10N and west of 125W through 
mid- week. 

Meanwhile, although there has been little change in Invest EP91
over the past day or so, a tropical depression could still form
in a few days while the low moves generally W at 10 to 15 kt. The
system is expected to exit the basin into the Central Pacific by
the end of the week. Some slow development of the other 
aforementioned low pressure to the east is also possible during
the next few days while it moves slowly WNW. By the end of the
week, however, upper-level winds should become less conducive for
development. 

The area of hazardous seas will cover waters north of a line 
from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico to 10N140W into tonight, with seas 
greater than 12 ft in some locations. The seas will then 
gradually decay into Thu. Looking ahead, another large set of 
northerly swell is likely to push south of 30N starting Thu 
night, with seas of 8 ft greater covering much of the waters 
north of 10N and west of 115W by Sat evening.

$$
Konarik