000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 89W from 03N northward to El Salvador, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 84W and 93W. A tropical wave is near 100W from 03N northward to Guerrero, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 99W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N100W to low pressure, Invest EP91, near 11N128W to 09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 84W, from 08N to 14N between 111W and 130W, and from 06N to 12N between 133W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale-force winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are 9 to 12 ft. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Mexico producing mainly gentle NW winds across the remainder of the offshore waters, except fresh offshore Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell outside of the Tehuantepec region, except building to 8 to 10 ft offshore Baja California in new NW swell. In the Gulf of California, seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted, except to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight will diminish to fresh to strong Tue. Winds will then weaken further starting Tue night, before increasing back to fresh to locally strong Thu night into Fri night. High pressure surging southward offshore Baja California will lead to fresh to strong W to NW winds W of Baja California and over the northern Gulf of California later tonight and Tue. NW swell will also spread offshore Baja California, with seas reaching 12 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro later tonight into Tue night. Winds should diminish to moderate across these areas Wed, while seas slowly subside into Thu. Looking ahead, a new area of large NW swell is likely to impact the waters offshore Baja California starting Fri through at least Sat night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds are present across the Papagayo region, where seas are up to 7 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, mixed with NW swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador where they are up to 9 ft due to ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap winds. Scattered thunderstorms are present offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica as described in the monsoon trough and tropical waves sections above. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong offshore winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through early Tue, with moderate to fresh winds otherwise into Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, freshening south of the monsoon starting Wed night, then possibly becoming strong toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters, potentially building to near 8 ft south of the monsoon trough toward Fri into the weekend. Meanwhile, seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will continue to spread across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight, with seas up to 9 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is along 133W from 17N to 24N. Fresh to strong winds are present across most waters N of 18N and W of 130W due to the tight pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure building into the northern waters. Seas of 8 to 13 ft in mixed NW to N swell and remnant swells generated earlier from the trough are present N of a line from 31N116W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure of 1007 mb, Invest EP91, located more than 1200 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 11N128W is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with fresh winds and seas to 8 ft nearby. Also, a weak area of low pressure about 900 nautical miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with fresh winds and seas to 7 ft nearby. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, the surface trough will shift west- southwestward through mid-week. This feature combined with high pressure building southward from north of 30N will support fresh to strong winds across the waters north of 20N and west of 130W, shifting west- southwestward through Wed. Large NW swell will continue to spread southeast while interacting with decaying mixed swell in very hazardous seas across the waters north of 10N and west of 125W through mid- week. Meanwhile, although the chances of development appear to be decreasing with Invest EP91, a tropical depression could still form in a few days while the system moves westward at about 15 kt. This system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Basin by the end of the week. Also, some slow development is possible during the next 3 to 4 days with the low to the east of Invest EP91 while it moves slowly to the west-northwest. By the end of the week, however, strong upper-level winds should end the chances of development. The area of hazardous seas in mixed swell will cover waters north of a line from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico to 10N140W Tue, with seas greater than 12 ft in some locations. The seas will then gradually decay into Thu. Looking ahead, another large set of northerly swell is likely to push south of 30N starting Thu night, with seas of 8 ft greater covering much of the waters north of 10N and west of 115W by Sat evening. $$ Konarik