000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280800 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gales in northerly gap winds will continue today as high pressure building down the western Gulf of Mexico forces winds through the higher terrain of southern Mexico, currently up to 40 kt. Very rough seas of up to 15 ft can be expected in the Tehuantepec region in association with these gales. Near gale force winds will continue into Tue, with pulsing fresh to strong winds thereafter. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is crossing Central America early this morning and is emerging into the eastern Pacific offshore Costa Rica along 84W. This wave is moving W at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N, E of 88W. A tropical wave is along 95W, extending S from Oaxaca to around 04N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 93W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to low pressure, Invest EP91, near 11N122W to 09N131W. The ITCZ extends from 09N131W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 103W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for information. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Mexico producing mainly gentle NW winds, and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, 1 to 3 ft seas are noted, except to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, other than the Gale Warning, high pressure will surge southward behind a weak cold front tonight into Tue, leading to increasing northwest winds offshore Baja California. Fresh to locally strong winds can be expected there through Tue night. As the front passes, winds in the northern Gulf of California will also pulse to strong late tonight and early Tue. NW swell will also spread offshore Baja California during this time, with seas reaching 12 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight through Tue night. Winds should diminish to moderate across these areas Wed, while seas slowly subside through Thu. Looking ahead, a new area of large NW swell may impact the waters offshore Baja California starting Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the waters. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are present across the Papagayo region where seas are up to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, mixed with NW swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador where they are up to 10 ft due to an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through tonight, then decrease to moderate to fresh into Wed. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, freshening south of the monsoon starting Wed night, then possibly becoming strong toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters, potentially building to near 8 ft south of the monsoon trough toward the end of the week. Meanwhile, seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will continue to spread across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador into tonight, with seas up to 8 to 10 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure, Invest EP91, is embedded in the monsoon trough near 11N122W at 1008 mb. Winds near the center are 20 to 25 kt, with a broader area of fresh NE to E winds along and north of the monsoon trough axis between 117W and 127W. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are along the monsoon trough near this low. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradually development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while it moves W or WNW at 10 to 15 kt over the western portions of the basin. The system is forecast to move out of the region, into the central Pacific, Thu. Another low pressure is near 22N131W at 1008 mb. Some strong NW winds are within about 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, with the pressure gradient between this low and high pressure building south from the north Pacific is leading to an expansive area of moderate to fresh NE winds for area waters N and W of the center. Seas through this area of higher winds are 8 to 12 ft, in wind waves combined with northwesterly long period swell. Elsewhere, winds are mainly gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft over open waters, except for seas to 8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore waters zone. For the forecast, high pressure will build across the northern waters behind a cold front brushing just north of 30N. This combined with the aforementioned low pressure systems will increase winds to fresh to strong across the waters north of 20N and west of 115W starting tonight. Hazardous seas in mixed swell will cover waters north of a line from Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico to 12N140W by early Tue, with seas greater than 12 ft in some locations. The seas will then gradually decay into Thu. Looking ahead, another large set of northerly swell may push south of 30N starting Thu night. $$ Konarik