000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272114 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure, the remnants of Kristy, is positioned near 22.5N129.5W at 1005 mb. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated winds to gale force, mainly on the NW side. Large seas of 10 to 15 ft are near these winds with a surrounding area of fresh to strong winds. Seas of 8 ft or greater covers an area roughly from 10N to 27N to the west of 127W. No deep convection is present with the remnant low. Associated winds are forecast to diminish below gale force in the next few hours while the remnant low degenerates into a trough by Mon afternoon. Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gales in northerly gap winds will continue through at least Mon morning as high pressure building down the western Gulf of Mexico forces winds through the higher terrain of southern Mexico, currently up to 40 kt. Very rough seas of up to 15 ft can be expected in the Tehuantepec region in association with these gales. Near gale force winds will continue through early Tue, with pulsing fresh to strong winds thereafter. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far western Caribbean Sea near 80.5W, extending south across western Panama This wave is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N to the east of 87.5W. A tropical wave is near 92.5W, extending from SE Mexico just west of the border with Guatemala to near 04N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14.5N between 92.5W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Panama to the coast of Costa Rica near 09N83.5W to 08N95W to low pressure, Invest EP91, near 10.5N121W to 09N133W. The ITCZ extends from 09N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 100W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for information. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Mexico producing mainly gentle NW winds, locally moderate offshore Punta Eugenia, and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, 1 to 3 ft seas are noted, except to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, other than the Gale Warning, high pressure will remain in place offshore Baja California tonight, generating gentle to locally moderate winds for the offshore waters. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Norte late tonight, then fresh to strong from Cabo San Lazaro northward Mon evening as a cold front impacts the region. Similar winds are forecast in the northern Gulf of California Mon night into early Tue. NW swell is forecast to build and spread offshore Baja California early this week, with large seas greater than 12 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro starting Mon night. Winds should diminish to moderate across these areas by Wed night, while seas slowly subside through Thu night. Looking ahead, a new area of large NW swell may impact the waters offshore Baja California by the end of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the waters. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are present across the Papagayo region where seas are up to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, mixed with NW swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador where they are up to 10 ft due to an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse across the Papagayo region into Tue, them moderate to fresh through early Wed. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, freshening south of the monsoon starting Wed, then possibly becoming strong toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters, potentially building to near 8 ft south of the monsoon trough toward the end of the week. Meanwhile, seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will continue to spread across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon night, with seas up to 8 to 10 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on the remnants of Kristy with an associated Gale Warning. Low pressure, Invest EP91, is embedded in the monsoon trough near 10.5N121W at 1008 mb. Associated winds are up to 25 kt per recent ASCAT scatterometer data with seas up to 8 ft. Outside of Kristy and Invest EP91, broad high pressure prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. A cold front is just north of 30N with associated NW swell greater than 8 ft now just southeast of 30N140W. Moderate to fresh winds are north of 10N and west of 130W, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters, except to around 8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore waters zone. For the forecast, other than the remnants of Kristy, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of Invest EP91 and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 kt over the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin. This system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin on Wed or Thu. Regardless of development, this feature is forecast to bring hazardous winds and seas near the system's path. Otherwise, high pressure will build across the northern waters behind the cold front brushing just north of 30N. This combined with the remnant trough of Kristy will increase winds to fresh to strong across the waters north of 20N and west of 115W early this week. Associated swells of 8 ft or greater will continue to push southeast of 30N140W tonight while mixing with swells generated by Kristy, resulting in very hazardous seas. These seas of 8 ft or greater will then cover waters north of a line from Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico to 12N140W by early Tue, with seas greater than 12 ft in some locations. The seas will gradually decay through mid-week. Looking ahead, another large set of northerly swell may push south of 30N toward the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky