000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271527 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy is centered near 22.6N 129.8W at 27/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 17 ft. No deep convection is present with Post-Tropical Kristy. A sharp turn to the west and west-southwest is expected late today and Mon. Continued weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical low is expected to dissipate on Mon. Associated gale force winds are forecast to diminish by this evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gales in northerly gap winds will continue through Mon morning as high pressure building down the western Gulf of Mexico forces winds through the higher terrain of southern Mexico, currently up to 40 kt. Very rough seas of up to 17 ft can be expected in the Tehuantepec region in association with these gales. Gale force winds may continue through late Mon, with pulsing fresh to strong winds thereafter. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far western Caribbean Sea, extending S into the Gulf of Panama near 79W. This wave is moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 77W and 86W. A weak tropical wave near 91W extends south from Guatemala to around 05N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 86.5W and 90W, and from 07N to 13N between 93W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N83.5W to 08N96W to low pressure, Invest EP91, near 10.5N119W to 09N133W. The ITCZ extends from 09N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 101W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for information. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Mexico producing mainly gentle NW winds, locally moderate offshore Punta Eugenia, and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, 1 to 3 ft seas are noted, except to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, other than the Gale Warning, high pressure will remain in place offshore Baja California today, generating gentle to locally moderate winds for the offshore waters. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Norte tonight, then fresh to strong from Cabo San Lazaro northward Mon afternoon as a cold front impacts the region. Similar winds are forecast in the northern Gulf of California Mon night into early Tue. Looking ahead, NW swell is forecast to build and spread offshore Baja California early this week, with large seas greater than 12 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro starting Mon night. Winds should diminish to moderate across these areas by Wed night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the waters. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are present across the Papagayo region where seas are up to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, mixed with NW swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador where they are up to 10 ft due to an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse across the Papagayo region into Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, freshening south of the monsoon starting Wed, then possibly becoming strong toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters, potentially building to near 8 ft south of the monsoon trough toward the end of the week. Meanwhile, seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will continue to spread across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon night, with seas up to 8 to 10 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy, with an associated Gale Warning. Low pressure, Invest EP91, is embedded in the monsoon trough near 10.5N119W at 1008 mb. Associated winds are up to 25 kt and seas up to 8 ft. Outside of Kristy and Invest EP91, broad high pressure prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to fresh winds are west of 130W with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters, except to around 8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore waters zone. For the forecast, Kristy will become a remnant low and move to 22.7N 130.5W this evening while associated winds diminish below gale force, 22.2N 131.8W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Meanwhile, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of Invest EP91 system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 kt over the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin. This system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin on Wed or Thu. Regardless of development, this feature is forecast to bring hazardous winds and seas near the system's path. Otherwise, high pressure will build across the northern waters behind a cold front brushing just north of 30N. Increasing winds to fresh to strong across the waters north of 20N and west of 115W early this week. Associated swells of 8 ft or greater will push southeast of 30N140W later today while mixing with swells generated by Kristy, resulting in very hazardous seas. These seas of 8 ft or greater will then cover waters north of a line from Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico to 12N140W by early Tue, with seas greater than 12 ft in some locations. The seas will gradually decay through mid-week. Looking ahead, another large set of northerly swell may push south of 30N toward the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky