000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 22.0N 129.8W at 27/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 23 ft. Kristy is becoming less defined early this morning, despite occasional bursts of convection well N of the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 420 nm in the N quadrant. Kristy is forecast to curve more northwestward then westward today as the circulation becomes more shallow and dominated by low-level ridging to the north. Rapid weakening will continue and Kristy is likely to weaken below tropical storm strength today and become a remnant low by tonight. Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gales in northerly gap winds will continue into Mon as high pressure building down the western Gulf of Mexico forces winds through the higher terrain of southern Mexico. Very rough seas of up to 17 ft can be expected in the Tehuantepec region in association with these gales. Near- gale conditions are forecast to prevail into Tue, with fresh to strong winds thereafter. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far western Caribbean Sea, extending S into the Gulf of Panama along 78W. This wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N E of 84W in association with this wave. A weak tropical wave along 90W extends S from Guatemala to around 05N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of this wave from 07N to 13N between 91W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N84W to 09N103W to 10N126W. The ITCZ starts well SW of Tropical Storm Kristy near 11N131W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves described in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 100W and 125W. Weak low pressure is forming along the monsoon trough near 10N119W, and this low is generating an area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 08N to 12N between 117W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for information. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Mexico producing mainly gentle NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, 1 to 3 ft seas are noted, except to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, other than the Gale Warning, high pressure will remain in place offshore Baja California today, generating gentle to locally moderate winds for the offshore waters. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Norte tonight, then fresh to strong from Cabo San Lazaro northward Mon afternoon as a cold front impacts the region. Similar winds are forecast in the northern Gulf of California Mon night into early Tue. Looking ahead, NW swell is forecast to build and spread offshore Baja California early this week, with large seas greater than 12 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro starting Mon night. Winds should diminish to moderate across these areas Wed or Wed night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the waters. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are present across the Papagayo region where seas are up to 8 ft. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, gentle winds prevail, with gentle to moderate winds to the south. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, mixed with NW swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador where they are up to 9 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse across the Papagayo region into Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, freshening south of the monsoon starting Wed, then possibly becoming strong toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters, potentially building to near 8 ft south of the monsoon trough toward the end of the week. Meanwhile, seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador into Mon, with seas building to up to 8 to 10 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Kristy. Outside of Kristy, broad high pressure prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds dominate outside of Kristy with seas of 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Kristy will become post-tropical and move to 22.2N 130.3W this afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.9N 131.5W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of a low pressure forming near 10N119W that is generating a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms well SW of the southwestern tip of Baja California. A tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of the week while moving W or WNW at 10 to 15 kt over the far western portions of the eastern Pacific Basin. This would bring hazardous winds and seas near the system's path. The feature is expected to move out of the basin and into the Central Pacific Wed or Thu. Otherwise, high pressure will build across the northern waters behind a cold front, increasing winds to fresh to strong across the waters north of 20N early this week. Associated swells of 8 ft or greater will push southeast of 30N140W by tonight, while mixing with swells generated by Kristy, resulting in very hazardous seas. These seas of 8 ft or greater will then cover waters north of a line from Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico to 12N140W by early Tue, with seas greater than 12 ft in some locations. The seas will gradually decay by mid-week. $$ Konarik