000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 21.5N 129.5W at 27/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 26 ft. Kristy remains a sheared tropical storm with numerous moderate convection noted within 510 nm in the N quadrant. Kristy is expected to slow down in forward speed tonight, then turn west Sun. Rapid weakening will continue, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low Sun. Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gales in northerly gap winds will continue into early Mon as high pressure building down the western Gulf of Mexico forces winds through the higher terrain of southern Mexico. Very rough seas of up to 17 ft can be expected in the Tehuantepec region in association with these gales. Near-gale conditions are forecast to prevail into early Tue, with fresh to strong winds thereafter. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea, extending S into NW Colombia along 77W. This wave is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection in association with this wave is impacting the Gulf of Panama, E of 83W. A weak tropical wave along 89W extends S from El Salvador to around 05N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of this wave from 08N to 13N between 90W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N84W to 09N101W to 10N119W. The ITCZ starts well SW of Tropical Storm Kristy near 11N130W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves described in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 100W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for more information. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Mexico producing mainly gentle NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, 1 to 3 ft seas are noted, except to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, other than the Gale Warning, high pressure will remain in place offshore Baja California through Sun, generating gentle to locally moderate winds for the offshore waters. Looking ahead, winds will increase to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Norte Sun night, then fresh to strong from Cabo San Lazaro northward Mon afternoon as a cold front impacts the region. Similar winds are forecast in the northern Gulf of California Mon night into early Tue. NW swell is forecast to build and spread offshore Baja California early week, with large seas greater than 12 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro starting Mon night. Winds should diminish to moderate across these areas Wed or Wed night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the waters. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are present across the Papagayo region where seas are up to 8 ft. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, gentle winds prevail, with gentle to moderate winds to the south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, mixed with NW swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador where they are up to 9 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, freshening south of the monsoon mid- week, then possibly becoming strong toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters, potentially building to near 8 ft south of the monsoon trough toward the end of the week. Meanwhile, seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador into early week, with seas building to up to 8 to 10 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Kristy. Outside of Kristy, broad high pressure prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. A large area of showers and thunderstorms are along the monsoon trough well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico, detailed in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above. Gentle to moderate winds dominate outside of Kristy, locally fresh near the convection mentioned, with seas of 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Kristy will move to 22.2N 130.1W Sun morning, weaken to a remnant low near 22.3N 131.2W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Looking ahead, high pressure will build across the northern waters behind a cold front, increasing winds to fresh to strong across the waters north of 20N for early week. Associated swells of 8 ft or greater will push southeast of 30N140W by Sun afternoon while mixing with swells generated by Kristy, resulting in very hazardous seas. These seas of 8 ft or greater will then cover waters north of a line from Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico to 12N140W by early Tue, with seas greater than 12 ft in some locations. The seas will gradually decay by mid-week. Meanwhile, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development in the area of convection along the monsoon trough, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the system moves westward or west- northwestward at about 15 kt. This system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin on Wed or Thu. $$ Konarik