000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262041 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 20.7N 129.2W at 26/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 30 ft. Kristy remains a sheared tropical storm with numerous moderate convection noted within 600 nm in the N quadrant. A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west on Sun. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the weekend, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sun. Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gale conditions have developed in response to high pressure building down the western Gulf of Mexico and over Mexico's Sierra Madre Mountains. The pressure gradient associated with this high will force northerly gap winds through the mountains of southern Mexico, continuing gales and very rough seas over the Tehunatepec region into early Mon, then near gale into early Tue, then fresh to strong thereafter. Winds will peak around 40 kt tonight, with seas peaking around 15 to 17 ft. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea moving into western Colombia, relocated to near 75.5W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection has spread offshore the Pacific coast of Colombia, from 02N to 08N between 77W and 82W. A weak tropical wave with an axis relocated to near 86W is north of 05N to across the Gulf of Papagayo and portions of Central America, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the tropical wave from 09N to 14N between 90W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N85W to 07.5N94W to 10N108W to 09N116W to 10N121W. The ITCZ starts well SW of Kristy near 10N130W to beyond 08.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 100W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for more information. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Mexico producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, 1 to 3 ft seas are noted, except to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, other than the Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, high pressure will remain in place offshore Baja California through Sun, generating gentle to locally moderate winds for the offshore waters. Looking ahead, winds will increase to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Norte late Sun, then fresh to strong from Cabo San Lazaro northward Mon afternoon as a cold front impacts the region. Similar winds are forecast in the northern Gulf of California late Mon into early Tue. NW swell is forecast to build and spread offshore Baja California early next week, with large seas greater than 12 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro starting Mon night. Winds should diminish to moderate across these areas mid-week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds are present across the Papagayo region where seas are up to 8 ft. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail, with gentle to moderate winds to the south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh offshore of the Ecuador-Colombia border. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, mixed with NW swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador where they are up to 8 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds are forecast to pulse across the Papagayo region through early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, freshening south of the monsoon trough mid-week, then potential fresh to strong towards the end of the week. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters, potentially building to near 8 ft south of the monsoon trough towards the end of the week. Meanwhile, seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador into early next week, with seas building to up to 8 to 10 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for further information on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Kristy. Outside of Kristy, broad high pressure prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. A large area of showers and thunderstorms are along the monsoon trough well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico, detailed in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above. Gentle to moderate winds dominate outside of Kristy, locally fresh near the convection mentioned, with seas of 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Kristy will move to 21.7N 129.9W Sun morning, weaken to a remnant low near 22.3N 130.7W Sun afternoon, 22.0N 132.0W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. Looking ahead, high pressure will build across the northern waters behind the next cold front, increasing winds to fresh to strong across the waters north of 20N early next week. Associated swells of 8 ft or greater will arrive and push southeast of 30N140W by Sun afternoon while mixing with swells generated by Kristy resulting in very hazardous seas. These seas of 8 ft or greater then cover waters north of a line from Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico to 12N140W by early Tue, with seas greater than 12 ft in some locations. These seas will gradually decay by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development in the area of convection along the monsoon trough, and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of next week while the system moves westward or west- northwestward at about 15 kt. This system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin on Wed or Thu. $$ Lewitsky