000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252039 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Kristy is centered near 16.8N 125.8W at 25/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are currently around 35 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 270 nm in the N semicircle and 120 nm in the S semicircle. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the weekend. Kristy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady to rapid weakening is expected during the next few days, with Kristy expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Sun. Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will gradually increase through the evening, with gale conditions developing shortly as high pressure builds down the western Gulf of Mexico and over the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. This pressure gradient will force northerly gap winds through the mountains of southern Mexico, inducing northerly gales and very rough seas over the Tehuantepec region into the start of next week. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is just east of the area in the Caribbean Sea near 77W, moving west around 10 kt. Nearby scattered moderate convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N83.5W to 08N97W to 11N116W. The ITCZ extends from well SW of Kristy from 09N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 12N between 90W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 80W, and from 07N to 09N between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for more information. A high pressure ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to locally moderate NW winds per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, and seas of 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle variable winds are noted with 1 to 3 ft seas, except to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, other than the Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, high pressure will remain in place offshore Baja California through much of the weekend, generating gentle to moderate winds for the offshore waters. Looking ahead, winds will increase to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Norte late Sun, then fresh to strong from Cabo San Lazaro northward Mon afternoon as a cold front impacts the region. Similar winds are forecast in the northern Gulf of California late Mon into early Tue. NW swell is forecast to build and spread offshore Baja California early next week, with large seas greater than 12 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro by Tue. Winds should diminish to moderate across these areas mid-week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are present across the Papagayo region. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail, with gentle to moderate winds to the south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, mixed with NW swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Convection is impacting the Gulf of Panama area as described above. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds are forecast to pulse across the Papagayo region through Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador this weekend into early next week, with seas building to up to 8 to 10 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for further information on Category Three Hurricane Kristy. A stationary front is in the NW waters from 30N132.5W to 25N140W. Nearby winds are only gentle to moderate, however associated NW swell of 7 to 8 ft is behind the front. Aside from the front and Kristy, high pressure dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ with mainly gentle to moderate winds per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Mainly moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, locally fresh between 90W and 110W. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Kristy will move to 18.0N 127.1W Sat morning, 20.0N 128.6W Sat afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 129.6W Sun morning, become post-tropical and move to 22.8N 130.5W Sun afternoon, move to near 22.7N 131.4W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. Meanwhile, the stationary front will dissipate into the weekend while associated swell subsides to less than 8 ft this evening. Looking ahead, high pressure will build across the northern waters behind the next front, increasing winds to fresh to strong across the waters north of 20N early next week. Associated swells of 8 ft or greater will arrive and push southeast of 30N140W early Sun, covering the waters north of a line from Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico to 11N140W by early Tue with seas greater than 12 ft in some locations. These seas will gradually decay by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky