000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kristy is a Category Four Hurricane. Hurricane Kristy is centered near 14.7N 122.7W at 25/0300 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Seas are peaking near 38 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. Kristy is moving toward the west, and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest, with a slower forward speed, is expected Friday through the weekend. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected through tonight, with rapid weakening expected to begin Friday as the environment quickly becomes hostile with strong wind shear, drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of Kristy. Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will increase again on Friday, with gale conditions developing as high pressure builds down the western Gulf of Mexico and over the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. This pressure gradient will force northerly gap winds through the mountains of southern Mexico, inducing northerly gales and very rough seas over the Tehuantepec region through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N96W to 10N110W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N126W to beyond to 09N140W. Aside for the convection associated with Hurricane Kristy, scattered moderate convection can be found from 09N to 14N between 94W and 115W, and from 07N to 10N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to to locally moderate NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle NW winds are noted with 1 to 3 ft seas, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place offshore Baja California into the weekend, generating mainly gentle to moderate winds for the offshore waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present across the Papagayo region. Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail, with gentle to moderate winds to the south. Some localized fresh southerly winds are noted between the Galapagos Islands and mainland Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend, reaching strong speeds Fri night and Sat as high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are expected to the north. Mainly moderate seas, in cross equatorial SW swell, will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, especially during this weekend when seas are forecast to build to 8 or 9 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the Special Features section for further information on Category Four Hurricane Kristy. Aside from Kristy, high pressure dominates the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 110W. Under the influence of the associated ridge, gentle to moderate winds are noted with seas of 4 to 7 ft. A weak cold front is over the far NW open waters and extends from 30N137W to 26N140W. Gentle to moderate S to SW are observed N of 28N ahead of the front to about 135W with 6 to 7 ft seas. W of the front, gentle to locally moderate W winds are seen, with seas to 8 ft in NW swell near 30N140W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough to about 20N and W of 125W, with mainly moderate seas. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken further Fri, then dissipate Fri night. The 8 ft seas behind the front will gradually decay below 8 ft during this time. Major Hurricane Kristy will move to 15.4N 124.4W Fri morning, 17.0N 126.5W Fri evening, and 18.9N 128.2W Sat morning. Hurricane Kristy will weaken below major hurricane threshold near 20.9N 129.4W Sat evening, then weaken further into to a tropical storm near 22.2N 130.3W Sun morning. Kristy will weaken to a remnant low near 22.5N 131.0W Sun evening. Kristy will dissipate late Mon. By Friday afternoon, seas 8 ft or greater, generated by Hurricane Kristy, will cover a large area from 06N to 22N between 118W and 133W. $$ Konarik