000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242132 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Oct 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Kristy becomes a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane Kristy is centered near 14.2N 121.6W at 24/2100 UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. Seas are peaking near 38 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center. Kristy is moving toward the west, and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest, with a slower forward speed, is expected Friday through the weekend. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected through tonight, with rapid weakening expected to begin Friday as the environment quickly becomes hostile with strong wind shear, drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of Kristy. Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds have diminished below gale force in the Tehuantepec region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted downwind to near 12N98W. A ridge will remain in place across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf. The pressure gradient across the region will tighten enough to support again minimal gale force winds Sat through Sun night. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 ft within these wind speeds. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N95W to 10N110W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N125W to beyond to 09N140W. Aside for the convection associated with Hurricane Kristy, scattered moderate convection can be found from 09N to 14N between 95W and 115W, and from 07N to 10N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. Seas generated by Kristy are still affecting the SW waters of Clarion Island where seas are 6 to 8 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate NW winds are noted with 1 to 3 ft seas, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Aside from Kristy and the fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell are noted elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California the remainder of the week generating gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate seas. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate seas will prevail in the Tehuantepec area through Fri night, then winds will increase again to minimal gale force Sat through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to near 88W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with mainly gentle to moderate winds S of it. An area of moderate to locally fresh S winds is noted, per satellite derived wind data, just N and NE of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are in general 3 to 5 ft, except 4 to 6 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend, reaching strong speeds Fri night and Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are expected to the north. Mainly moderate seas, in cross equatorial SW swell, will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, especially during the upcoming weekend when seas are forecast to build to 8 or 9 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the Special Features section for further information on Major Hurricane Kristy. Aside from Kristy, high pressure dominates the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 110W. Under the influence of the associated ridge, mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted with seas of 4 to 7 ft per altimeter data. A cold front is over the far NW open waters and extends from 30N138W to 27N140W. Moderate S to SW are observed N of 28N ahead of the front to about 135W with 6 to 7 ft seas. W of the front, mainly gentle winds are seen, with seas to 8 ft in NW swell near 30N140W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough to about 20N and W of 125W, with mainly moderate seas. For the forecast, the cold front will move across the NW forecast waters through Fri while weakening. Seas to 8 ft in NW swell in the wake of the front will continue to affect the far NW corner of the forecast region through early Fri afternoon. Kristy will continue to move away from the Mexican offshore waters and reach 14.8N 123.4W Fri morning, 16.1N 125.6W Fri afternoon, 17.7N 127.6W Sat morning, 19.8N 129.1W Sat afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.7N 130.2W Sun morning, and become post- tropical and move to 22.2N 131.0W Sun afternoon. Kristy will weaken to a remnant low near 21.4N 133.0W Mon afternoon. Seas 8 ft or greater, generated by Kristy, will cover a large area from 05N to 22N between 117W AND 132W by early Fri afternoon. $$ GR