000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240351 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kristy is centered near 14.2N 117.2W at 24/0300 UTC, moving west at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 928 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Seas are peaking near 34 ft per recent altimeter data. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center. Kristy is moving toward the west, and a westward to west- northwestward motion is forecast through Thursday. A slower northwest to north-northwest motion is expected by late Friday. Kristy is expected to fluctuate in strength over the next day or so. Steady to rapid weakening should begin by early Friday. Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Minimal gale force winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N as high pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Fresh to strong N to NE winds extend farther south to about 10N101W. Peak seas of 15 ft are ongoing. Gale conditions are expected to persist in the Tehuantepec region through early Thu morning, then resume Sat through Sun as a ridge persists across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 09N102W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N123W to beyond to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 85 and 95W, and from 07N to 14N between 100W and 114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. Hurricane Kristy is SW of the Revillagigedo Islands near 14.2N 117.2W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 928 mb. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft. Due to the swell generated by Kristy, seas of 7 to 8 ft prevail across the outer offshore waters SW of the Revillagigedo Islands and Clarion Island. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate NW winds are noted with 1-3 ft seas. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-6 ft in mixed E and S swell are noted elsewhere across the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, hurricane Kristy will continue to move away from the offshore forecast waters of Mexico and reach 14.2N 119.6W Thu morning, 14.6N 122.3W Thu evening, 15.5N 124.9W Fri morning, 16.9N 127.1W Fri evening, 18.7N 129.0W Sat morning, and 20.5N 130.7W Sat evening. Kristy will weaken as a post-tropical cyclone near 21.7N 132.4W late Sun. Gale conditions are expected to persist in the Tehuantepec region through early Thu morning, and resume Sat through Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed in the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds S of it. Seas are in general 3 to 5 ft, except 4 to 6 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend, pulsing to strong speeds mainly at night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are expected to the north. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial SW swell are expected. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador especially during the upcoming weekend when seas are forecast to build to 8 or 9 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the Special Features section for further information on Hurricane Kristy. Aside from Kristy, high pressure dominates the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 115W. Under the influence of the associated ridge, mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted with seas of 4 to 7 ft. A cold front is over the far NW open waters from 30N139W to 29N140W. Fresh to strong S to SW are observed N of 28N ahead of the front to about 135W with 8-9 ft seas. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough to 20N and W of 110W, with mainly moderate seas. For the forecast, the cold front will move across the NW forecast waters through Thu, reaching from 30N138W to 27N140W by Thu afternoon, then begins to weaken on Fri. Winds ahead of the front will diminish to 20 kt or less on Thu morning while a new swell event is forecast to follow the front. Hurricane Kristy will move to 14.2N 119.6W Thu morning, 14.6N 122.3W Thu evening, 15.5N 124.9W Fri morning, 16.9N 127.1W Fri evening, 18.7N 129.0W Sat morning, and 20.5N 130.7W Sat evening. Kristy will weaken as a post-tropical cyclone near late Sun. $$ Ramos