000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Oct 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Kristy continues to rapidly intensify and now it is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At 23/2100 UTC, Hurricane Kristy is centered near 14.1N 115.5W, moving west at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 928 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Seas are peaking near 40 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Kristy is moving toward the west, and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday and into the weekend. Some additional strengthening is expected through early Thursday. Gradual weakening should begin on Friday. Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Minimal gale force winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N as high pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Fresh to strong N to NE winds extend farther south to about 11N98W. An altimeter pass indicate peak seas of 12 ft while a ship call sign C6EF4 located near 15.5N96W shows gale force winds and seas to 12 ft. Gale conditions are expected to persist in the Tehuantepec region through early Thu morning, then fresh to strong winds are forecast to continue the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend as a ridge persists across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N103W. It resumes W of hurricane Kristy near 08N120W to 10N127W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N130W to beyond to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 105W and 112W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. Hurricane Kristy is moving away from the offshore forecast zones. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Due to the swell generated by Kristy, seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted across the outer offshore waters of Colima and Jalisco, and seas of 8 to 11 ft are affecting the waters just south of the Revillagigedo Islands and Clarion Island. In the Gulf of California, mainly moderate NE winds are noted per scatterometer data S of 28N where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail N of 28N. Aside from Kristy and the gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell are noted elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, hurricane Kristy will continue to move away from the offshore forecast waters of Mexico and reach to 14.0N 118.0W Thu morning, 14.1N 121.0W Thu afternoon, 14.7N 123.6W Fri morning, 15.8N 126.0W Fri afternoon, 17.4N 128.3W Sat morning, and 19.5N 130.1W Sat afternoon. Kristy will weaken as a post- tropical cyclone W of area near 21.0N 133.0W Sun afternoon. Gale conditions are expected to persist in the Tehuantepec region through early Thu morning, then fresh to strong winds are forecast to continue the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE winds are observed in the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds S of it. Seas are in general 3 to 5 ft, except 4 to 6 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend, pulsing to strong speeds mainly at night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are expected to the north. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial SW swell are expected. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador especially during the upcoming weekend when seas are forecast to build to 8 or 9 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the Special Features section for further information on Hurricane Kristy. Aside from Kristy, high pressure dominates the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 115W. Under the influence of the associated ridge, mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted with seas of 4 to 7 ft. A cold front has reached 30N140W. Fresh to strong S to SW are observed N of 28N ahead of the front to about 135W with seas to 8 ft. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough to 20N and W of 110W, with mainly moderate seas. For the forecast, the cold front will move across the NW forecast waters through Thu, reaching from 30N138W to 27N140W by Thu afternoon, then begins to weaken on Fri. Winds ahead of the front will diminish to 20 kt or less on Thu morning while a new swell event is forecast to follow the front. Hurricane Kristy will move to 14.0N 118.0W Thu morning, 14.1N 121.0W Thu afternoon, 14.7N 123.6W Fri morning, 15.8N 126.0W Fri afternoon, 17.4N 128.3W Sat morning, and 19.5N 130.1W Sat afternoon. Kristy will weaken as a post-tropical cyclone W of area near 21.0N 133.0W Sun afternoon. $$ GR