000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Kristy rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane. Hurricane Kristy is centered near 14.3N 113.9W at 23/1500 UTC, moving west at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Seas are peaking near 36 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Kristy is moving toward the west, and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday and into the weekend. Kristy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday. Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Minimal gale force winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N as high pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Fresh to strong N to NE winds extend farther south to about 11N98W. An altimeter pass indicate peak seas of 12 ft while a ship call sign C6EF4 located near 15.5N96W shows gale force winds and seas to 10 ft. Gale conditions are expected to persist in the Tehuantepec region through Thu night, then fresh to strong winds are forecast to continue the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend as a ridge persists across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N103W. It resumes W of Hurricane Kristy near 08N120W to 10N126W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N128W and beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 100W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for more information. Hurricane Kristy is moving away from the offshore forecast zones. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Seas are building to 5 to 8 ft between LOs Cabos and the offshore waters of Colima and Jalisco due to swell generated by Kristy. Gentle winds are also noted in the Gulf of california with seas of 1 to 3 ft, expect 3 to 5 ft across the south part of the Gulf, including the entrance to the Gulf. Aside from Kristy and the gale winds in the Tehuantepec region, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, hurricane Kristy will continue to move away from the offshore forecast waters of Mexico and move to 14.2N 116.4W this evening, 14.1N 119.7W Thu morning, 14.3N 122.5W Thu evening, 15.1N 125.1W Fri morning, 16.5N 127.3W Fri evening, and 18.0N 129.3W Sat morning. Kristy will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.5N 132.5W early Sun. Gale conditions are expected to persist in the Tehuantepec region through Thu night, then fresh to strong winds are forecast to continue the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo Wed through Sun night, pulsing to fresh speeds at night through Fri and strong speeds at night this weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial SW swell are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for further information on Hurricane Kristy. Aside from Kristy, high pressure dominates the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough to 20N and W of 110W, with mainly moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are found S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, a cold front will reach the NW corner of the forecast region today. A new swell event is forecast to follow the front. Kristy will move to 14.2N 116.4W this evening, 14.1N 119.7W Thu morning, 14.3N 122.5W Thu evening, 15.1N 125.1W Fri morning, 16.5N 127.3W Fri evening, and 18.0N 129.3W Sat morning. Kristy will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.5N 132.5W early Sun $$ GR