000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230403
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Oct 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Kristy is centered near 14.7N 110.1W at 23/0300 UTC,
moving west at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. 
Seas are peaking near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 108W and 113W. A 
well-established subtropical ridge is expected to steer the 
tropical cyclone westward over the next couple of days, followed
by a gradual turn to the west-northwest and northwest on Friday. 
Additional strengthening is expected and Kristy could rapidly 
intensify into a major hurricane by Wednesday. Please read the 
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N101W. It resumes W 
of Hurricane Kristy near 11N112W to 11N125W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 08N to 11N between 90W and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on information on 
Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy is near 14.7N 110.1W at 8 PM PDT, and is 
moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with 
gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Aside
from Kristy, strong to near gale winds prevail across the 
Tehuantepec region, where seas are in the 8-10 ft range. A weak 
ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough
over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the 
Baja California peninsula and extending southward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over these 
waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are 
in the southern half of the Gulf of California. Gentle to 
moderate winds are over the northern Gulf, with seas in the 2-3 
ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are over 
the remainder of the discussion waters. 

For the forecast, Kristy will move to 14.5N 112.7W Wed morning,
14.3N 116.1W Wed evening, 14.2N 119.3W Thu morning, 14.4N 122.3W
Thu evening, 15.2N 125.0W Fri morning, and 16.4N 127.3W Fri 
evening. Kristy will change little in intensity as it moves near 
19.2N 131.3W late Sat. Strong to near gale N gap winds in the 
Tehuantepec will continue through the weekend, with gales 
likely pulsing tonight and this weekend. Moderate to fresh NW to
N winds are expected over central and southern portions of the 
Gulf of California through early Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with
gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
5-6 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Papagayo Wed through Sun night, pulsing to fresh speeds 
at night through Fri and strong speeds at night this weekend. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of
the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds will prevail 
north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate seas in cross 
equatorial SW swell are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for further information on 
Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy is near 14.7N 110.1W at 8 PM PDT, and is 
moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with 
gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Aside
from Kristy, high pressure dominates the forecast waters N of 
20N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between this area of 
high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon
trough to 20N and W of 110W, with mainly moderate seas. Gentle 
to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail N of 20N. Gentle 
to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are found S of the monsoon 
trough. 

For the forecast, a cold front will reach the NW corner of the 
forecast region tonight into Wed. A new swell event is forecast 
to follow the front. Kristy will move to 14.5N 112.7W Wed 
morning, 14.3N 116.1W Wed evening, 14.2N 119.3W Thu morning, 
14.4N 122.3W Thu evening, 15.2N 125.0W Fri morning, and 16.4N 
127.3W Fri evening. Kristy will change little in intensity as it 
moves near 19.2N 131.3W late Sat. 

$$
Ramos