000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 14.2N 104.8W at 22/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking near 16 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 100W and 109W. Kristy is expected to continue on a general westward motion during the next few days as the system is steered by broad subtropical ridge centered well west of Baja California. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days and Kristy is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N96W. It resumes W of Tropical Storm Kristy near 09N109W to low pres near 11N122W 1011 mb to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 94W and 120W and from 08N to 16N between 127W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on information on Tropical Storm Kristy. Tropical Storm Kristy is near 14.2N 104.8W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Aside from Kristy, fresh to strong NNE winds are ongoing across the Tehuantepec region, where seas are in the 7-10 ft range. A weak ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to locally moderate NNW winds with seas of 4 to 9 ft, highest south of Cabo San Lucas due to a gap wind event in the southern Gulf of California where NW winds have fresh speeds and seas are 8 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail over the northern half of the Gulf. For the forecast, Kristy will move to 14.3N 107.1W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.4N 110.4W Wed morning, 14.3N 113.8W Wed afternoon, 14.2N 117.2W Thu morning, 14.3N 120.3W Thu afternoon, and 14.8N 123.0W Fri morning. Kristy will change little in intensity as it moves near 17.1N 127.9W early Sat. Fresh to strong N gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will increase to strong to near-gale force tonight, and continue through the weekend with brief gales likely Wed night and Sat through Sun. A ridge will prevail over the offshore waters of Baja California and will support fresh NW to N winds over central and southern portions of the Gulf of California today through early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are across the Central America offshore waters along with 4 to 7 ft seas in SW swell. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell. Scattered heavy showers are ongoing across the offshore waters of Guatemala, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo Wed through Sun night, sometimes pulsing to fresh speeds at night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will occur south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial SW swell are expected, with the highest seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for further information on Tropical Storm Kristy. Tropical Storm Kristy is near 14.2N 104.8W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Aside from Kristy, high pressure dominates the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate seas. Locally fresh NE to E winds are likely ongoing near a 1011 mb low near 11N122W and a 1011 mb low embedded in the monsoon near 12N138W. Cross equatorial SW swell, with seas of 8 to 9 ft, is just south of the monsoon from 03N to 07N between 97W and 108W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the area of high pressure will slowly weaken. A cold front will reach the NW corner of the forecast region tonight into Wed. A new swell event is forecast to follow the front. Tropical Storm Kristy, W of the Mexico offshores, will move to 14.3N 107.1W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.4N 110.4W Wed morning, 14.3N 113.8W Wed afternoon, 14.2N 117.2W Thu morning, 14.3N 120.3W Thu afternoon, and 14.8N 123.0W Fri morning. Kristy will change little in intensity as it moves near 17.1N 127.9W early Sat. $$ Ramos