000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 13.5N 102.0W at 21/2100 UTC, moving west at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking near 11 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 100W and 104W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 99W and 106W. Kristy is expected to continue on a general westward motion during the next few days as the system is steered by broad subtropical ridge centered well west of Baja California. Relatively low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures should allow Kristy to steadily gain strength over the next few days. The current forecast calls for the tropical cyclone to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N98W. It resumes W of Tropical Storm Kristy near 12N105W to low pres near 12N121W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 90W and 117W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N to 12N between 128W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on newly formed Tropical Storm Kristy. Aside from Tropical Storm Kristy, moderate to fresh winds are prevail across the Tehuantepec region, where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. A weak ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to locally moderate NNW winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong NW winds are observed across the southern part of the Gulf, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail over the remainder of the Gulf. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, newly developed Tropical Storm Kristy is near 13.5N 102.0W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Kristy will move to 13.5N 104.0W Tue morning, 13.9N 107.0W Tue afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.1N 110.5W Wed morning, 14.1N 113.9W Wed afternoon, 14.0N 117.3W Thu morning, and 14.0N 120.6W Thu afternoon. Kristy will change little in intensity as it moves to the 15.7N 126.0W Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong N gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will increase to strong to near-gale force Tue night, and continue through the end of the week. A ridge will prevail over the offshore waters of Baja California while a trough meanders between the Gulf of California and Baja California. This will support fresh to locally strong NW to N winds over central and southern portions of the Gulf of California through tonight and moderate to fresh NW winds Tue through early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds are across the Central America offshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica while light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the Central America offshore zones. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo Wed through Fri night, pulsing to fresh speeds at night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will occur south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial SW swell are expected, with the highest seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate seas. Cross equatorial SW swell, with seas of 8 to 9 ft, are E of 111W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the area of high pressure will slowly weaken. A cold front will reach the NW corner of the forecast region Tue night into Wed. A new swell event is forecast to follow the front. Recently developed Tropical Storm Kristy will enter the discussion waters W of the Mexico offshores tonight into Tuesday and continue on a general westward motion over the next few days. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on Tropical Storm Kristy. $$ AL