000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191555
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Oct 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: N gale force winds are ongoing
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N, as high 
pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra 
Madre Oriental in Mexico. N gale force winds of 35 to 40 kt and 
seas of 10 to 12 ft will occur through late tonight. Seas generated
from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area,
with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N on Sun
morning. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
this weekend should be aware of this gap wind event, and take 
the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over 
the affected waters.

Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs
in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late
March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur 
as early as September, and as late as May. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N100W to a 1011 mb 
low pressure centered near 12N112W to 12N137W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is occurring from 10N to 13N east of 90W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found 
from 04N to 08N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 
12.5N between 89W and 93W, from 07N to 11N between 99W to 110W, 
and from 09N to 15N between 110W and 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Please 
see the Special Features section for more details.  

A 1028 mb high pressure located N of area near 36N132W extends a
ridge across the waters west of Baja California while a frontal 
boundary is draped over the central Gulf of California and a 
trough extends through central Mexico. The pressure gradient 
between these features is supporting moderate NW winds over the 
waters offshore of Baja California, with locally fresh winds 
occurring north of Punta Eugenia. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted 
offshore of Baja California Norte, with seas of 4 to 6 ft to the
south. Moderate NW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the 
northern Gulf of California behind the cold front. Elsewhere away
from the gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to 
gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, gale force winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through early Sun Morning, then fresh to strong winds
will persist through Mon. Seas are forecast to build to 13 or 14
ft within the strongest winds. Ridging will prevail over the 
offshore waters while troughing develops over the Gulf of 
California and Baja California. This pattern will promote gentle 
to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California southward through 
Guerrero this weekend. By early next week, a tightening pressure 
gradient between the ridge and developing low pressure over far 
southern Mexico will lead to fresh to locally strong NW winds in 
the aforementioned area. Looking ahead, after tropical cyclone 
Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are expected
to move into the eastern Pacific. The combination of the remnants
of Nadine and influences from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 
event are forecast to result in formation of a new low pressure 
system off the coast of southwestern Mexico in a couple of days. 
Additional development is expected after that time, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of 
next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph away 
from the coast of Mexico. This system has a HIGH chance of 
tropical cyclone development through the next 7 days. 

Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest scatterometer satellite data show gentle to locally 
moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough, and light to 
gentle winds to the north. Satellite altimeter data depict seas 
of 3 to 5 ft in the offshore waters of Central and South America,
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands, where wave heights 
are 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds will
occur south of the monsoon trough today while light to gentle 
winds will prevail to the north. Locally moderate SW winds will 
be possible south of the trough Sun into early next week as a 
tropical wave moves from the western Caribbean into the East 
Pacific. Long-period, cross equatorial SW swell will propagate 
across the offshore waters this weekend, resulting in locally 
rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sun into 
early next week. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will 
propagate across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador through Sun with seas of 6 to 9 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Latest scatterometer satellite data show fresh NE winds occurring
north of 24N along the outer periphery of the eastern Pacific 
ridge, centered near 36N132W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring 
north of 26N between 120W and 126W, and from 24N to 26N between 
128W and 131W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE winds 
are occurring to the north of the monsoon trough. Locally rough 
seas are noted to the north of the ITCZ, south of 16N and west of
132W. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SE 
winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, rough seas north of 26N will slowly subside 
today. High pressure will continue to dominate the northern 
waters through early next week, supporting gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of 110W. 
Long-period S swell will lead to rough seas just south of the 
Equator this weekend.
 
$$
GR