000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190354
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Oct 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: N gale force winds are 
occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec downwind to about 14N, as 
high pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of the 
Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico in the wake of a stationary front
that extends across the Bay of Campeche. N gale force winds of 
35 to 40 kt and building seas of 10 to 12 ft will occur through 
late Sat night. Seas generated from this event will spread well 
away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater 
reaching as far south as 08N on Sun. Marine interests transiting 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend should be aware of 
this gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid 
hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. 

Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs
in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late
March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur 
as early as September, and as late as May. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N100W to 1010 mb low
pressure located near 13N112W to a 1011 mb low pressure situated
near 13N129W to 11N136W. The ITCZ continues from 11N136W to 
beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
occurring from 09N to 13N east of 89W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 104W 
to 120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Please 
see the Special Features section for more details.  

A 1028 mb ridge is centered near 38N132W, a cold front is draped
over the northern Gulf of California and a 1005 mb low is 
present over north-central Mexico. The pressure gradient between 
these features is supporting moderate NW winds over the waters 
offshore of Baja California. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted to the 
north of Punta Eugenia, with seas of 5 to 7 ft to the south. 
Fresh NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in the northern Gulf
of California behind the cold front. Elsewhere away from the 
gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle 
winds and slight seas prevail across the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters.

For the forecast, strong N winds will occur Sun into Mon in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, with fresh winds persisting on Mon. N winds
will increase again late Mon, with strong N to NE winds 
occurring through the end of next week. Ridging will prevail over
the offshore waters while a trough will develop over the Gulf of
California and Baja California. This pattern will promote gentle
to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California southward through
Guerrero this weekend. By early next week, a tightening pressure
gradient between the ridge and developing low pressure over far 
southern Mexico will lead to locally fresh NW winds in the 
aforementioned area. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is 
expected to form in a few days well offshore of southwestern 
Mexico. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form around the middle of next week as 
the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. This system has a 
medium chance of tropical cyclone development through 7 days. 

Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW to W winds prevail north of the monsoon trough,
and gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are occurring south
of the trough. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the offshore 
waters of Central and South America, except in the lee of the
Galapagos Islands where wave heights are 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds will
occur south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds 
will prevail to the north through this weekend. Cross equatorial
SW swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast
waters, with locally rough seas occurring between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands Sun into early next week. Seas generated 
in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the outer 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun with 
seas of 6 to 9 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring north of 25N along
the periphery of the high pressure centered near 38N132W. Seas of
8 to 9 ft are noted north of 25N and east of 134W. Elsewhere,
fresh NE winds are occurring to the north of the areas of low
pressure along the monsoon trough, particularly between 110W and
118W, and between 128W and 135W. Rough seas are noted to the
north of the ITCZ, south of 16N and west of 130W. South of the
monsoon trough, moderate S to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
northern waters through early next week, supporting mainly a 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough
and W of 110W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell will continue to 
propagate across the NE waters mainly N of 27N between 120W and 
125W through Sat morning, then will gradually subside. 
 
$$
ADAMS