070 
AXPZ20 KNHC 181601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Oct 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northerly winds,
with frequent gusts to gale force are blowing across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and downwind to about 11N as high pressure surges 
southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains 
in Mexico in the wake of a stationary front that extends across 
the Bay of Campeche. Winds are forecast to increase to gale-force
speeds by this evening. Expect N to NE winds in the 30 to 40 kt 
range, and building seas of up to 12 ft. Seas generated from 
this gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec 
area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N on 
Sun. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
this weekend should be aware of this gap wind event, and take the
necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the 
affected waters. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N100W to 13N111W to
1011 mb low pressure located near 11N133W. The ITCZ continues 
from 11N133W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 106W and 
119W, and from 08N to 14N west of 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehunatepec.

Troughing extends from southwestern Arizona through central 
Mexico and a 1027 mb high is centered near 37N134W. This pattern
is supporting moderate NW to locally fresh NW winds offshore of 
Baja California with seas of 5 to 8 ft in this region, highest N
of Punta Eugenia. Fresh to locally strong S to SW gap winds are 
noted in the Gulf of California, and associated seas are 3 to 5 
ft. Fresh to strong N winds with frequent gusts to gale force are
occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and accompanying seas are 8
to 10 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, strengthening low pressure in the northern Gulf
of California will promote fresh to strong S to SW winds this
morning before turning to the N this afternoon. Associated seas 
of 4-7 ft are expected in this region. Winds in this area will 
diminish this weekend. Increasing NW swell will promote locally 
rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte today into Sat 
morning. Troughing will become established this weekend over the 
Gulf of California, and moderate to locally fresh NW winds are 
expected from the Gulf of California southward to offshore of 
Michoacan and Guerrero Sun into next week. Looking ahead, an 
area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle part of 
next week well offshore of southwestern Mexico. Gradual 
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression 
could form during the middle to latter portion of next week as 
the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, and
gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of 
the trough. Seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted in the offshore waters 
of Central and South America.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds will
occur south of the monsoon trough today, with locally fresh 
winds occurring at times Sat into early next week. North of the 
monsoon trough, light to gentle winds will prevail. Building S to
SW swell this weekend will lead to locally rough seas in the 
waters offshore of Colombia and Ecuador, as well as in the far 
offshore waters of Central America. Active convection 
accompanying a tropical wave across the west Caribbean will shift
westward into the Pacific offshore waters from Costa Rica to 
Guatemala tonight through Sun morning. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends southwestward from 1015 mb low centered 
near 28N126W. Fresh NE winds and locally rough seas are noted to
the north of the front. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE 
winds are occurring north of the ITCZ, generally west of 125W and
south of 24N. Seas of 8-10 ft are likely occurring in this area.
South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate S to SE winds and
seas of 5-8 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will progress southward to near
25N through Sat morning before dissipating. A period of fresh NE
winds are anticipated immediately behind the front through
tonight, with moderate NE swell moving into the regional waters.
Fresh to briefly strong trades will continue north of the ITCZ 
today before diminishing this weekend. NW swell across the 
regional waters will gradually subside over the next few days. 
New southerly swell will cross the equator on Sat.
 
$$
GR