000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160311 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave moving into the Tehuantepec area this afternoon and evening has become absorbed in broad low to mid-level cyclonic flow across eastern Mexico and Central America. The wave is no longer detectable and has not been added to the latest surface analysis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 10N80W to 07.5N86W to 10N98W to 11N120W to 10N122W, then transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 07.5N E of 90W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12.5N between 108W and 130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 13N W of 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending offshore to near 14N as verified by a recent ship observation from "VRLN5". Seas over these waters are in the 6-7 ft range. Elsewhere, weak high pressure ridging extends from a 1023 mb high pressure centered well W of the the Baja California waters near 30N136W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate NW to N winds over the Baja California waters, where seas are 7-11 ft range in building NW swell across the waters north of Punta Eugenia, and 6-9 ft southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to locally moderate winds are across most of the Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft or less. Over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 6 ft or less prevail. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds across the Tehuantepec region will increase to fresh to strong speeds Thu into the coming weekend, increasing to near gale-force on Sat. Otherwise, moderate winds across the Baja California waters will continue through early Thu, pulsing to fresh near the coast during the evening hours. Winds are expected to weaken modestly on Thu. A significant NW swell moving across the Baja California Norte waters tonight will spread southeastward through Thu, with seas offshore of Baja California Norte building to near 12 ft this evening and tonight. Low pressure will develop across the northern Gulf of California Thu through Fri inducing moderate to fresh SW to W gap winds across the Gulf basin, becoming strong across north portions Fri. A cold front will move southward through Baja Norte Fri afternoon and night and reach the central portions on Sat before dissipating. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE gap winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend westward to 89W. Seas with these winds are in the 5-6 ft range. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail, where seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell prevail. For the forecast, moderate gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh tonight before becoming light and variable for the next few days. Seas across the area waters will slowly subside through Fri as gentle to moderate winds persist, and small NW and SW swell dominates the area waters. New cross- equatorial S swell will enter the regional waters Fri night through Sun night, gradually raising sea height into the 5-8 ft range. Active convection accompanying a tropical wave across the west and northwest Caribbean over the weekend will shift into the Pacific offshore waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala Sat and Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1024 mb remains centered near 30N136W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N to the ITCZ, and west of 122W. Seas over these waters have built to 8-12 ft in new NW swell in recent hours, as verified by recent satellite altimeter data. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, where seas are in the 8-13 ft range in NW swell. Moderate northerly winds are east of the high center, and west of 115W, where seas have built to 8-13 ft in NW swell. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift slowly westward through Wed and then west of 140W early Thu. The associated anticyclonic wind flow will dominate the waters north of the ITCZ, producing moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N and west of 130W through Thu night. Moderate to large NW swell spreading across regional waters will move into the tropical Pacific waters and reach 110W by Fri morning. through Seas are peaking near 13 ft N of 28N and west of 127W tonight along with this NW swell. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the open waters through Thu. New southerly swell will cross the equator Fri through Sat. A cold front will sink into the northern waters Thu night and reach near 20N by Sat before dissipating. This will bring moderate NE swell into the regional waters. $$ Stripling