000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142023 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W, south of 20N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only limited convection is in the vicinity of the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N85W to 08N119W, then transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 86W, and from 08N to 13N between 95W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure is centered over E Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the EPAC monsoon trough is supporting fresh to near gale- force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, that extend offshore to near 14N. Seas over these waters are in the 8-9 ft range. Elsewhere, weak high pressure ridging extends from a 1015 mb high pressure centered W of the the Baja California waters near 30N133W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California waters, where seas are in the 7-8 ft range in NW swell. Light to gentle winds are across most of the Gulf of California, except for moderate S to SW winds across the north portions. Seas are 3 ft or less. Over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, strong to near-gale gap winds across the Tehuantepec region will gradually diminish to fresh to strong speeds through Tue morning, then weaken quickly. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja California Norte waters will spread southward to Cabo San Lazaro today, and then to the Baja California Sur waters on Tue. Winds are expected to weaken modestly on Thu. Low pressure will develop across the northern Gulf of California Thu through Fri to induce moderate to fresh SW to W gap winds across the Gulf basin. NW swell moving through the the north and central Baja California waters will reach the Baja California Sur waters today then fade through Tue. A more significant NW swell is expected to move into the regional waters Tue through Thu, with seas offshore of Baja California Norte building to 8-11 ft Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec has produced seas reaching 7 ft in NW to N swell across the far western waters offshore of Guatemala. Moderate E gap winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend westward to 88W. Seas with these winds are in the 5-6 ft range. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail, where seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell prevail. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh at night through Tue. Seas across the area waters will slowly subside across the region through Fri as gentle to moderate winds persist, and small NW and SW swell dominates the area waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed near 30N133W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N to the ITCZ, and west of 128W. Seas over this area are 6-8 ft in mixed swell. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, where seas are in the 7-10 ft range in NW swell. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate northerly winds east of the high center, and east of 120W, where seas are in the 7-8 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift westward through Tue and then west of 140W Wed. The associated anticyclonic wind flow will continue to dominate the waters north of the ITCZ today, then begin to freshen south of 20N and west of 130W Tue night through Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the open waters through Thu. Cross- equatorial swell over the waters south of 15N will gradually decay through Tue. NW swell has spread into the NW waters, and will move through the regional waters through Wed night. Seas will peak near 11 ft along 30N on Tue with this NW swell. $$ AL