000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140855 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 11N84W to low pres 1011 mb near 09.5N114W to 08N123W, then transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N133W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10.5N E of 93W, and from 09N to 14.5N between 92W and 105W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 113W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 12.5N between 128W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico and extends southwestward across eastern Mexico tonight. The pressure gradient between this high pressure ridge and lower pressure within the EPAC monsoon trough is supporting fresh to near gale- force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, that extend offshore to near 14N as shown by recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas there are in the 8-11 ft range. Elsewhere, weak high pressure ridging extends from a 1023 mb high centered well W of the the Baja California waters near 29N136W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds over the Baja waters north of Punta Abreojos. Seas across this area are in the 7-9 ft range in NW swell. Light to gentle NW to N winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere over the Baja California offshore waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds are across most of the Gulf of California, except for moderate S to SW winds across north portions. Seas are 3 ft or less. Over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in S swell prevail. For the forecast, the strong to near-gale gap winds will continue across the Tehuantepec region through late this morning, before winds gradually diminish to fresh to strong speeds through Tue morning, then weaken quickly. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja California Norte waters will spread southward to Cabo San Lazaro today, and then to the Baja California Sur waters on Tue. Winds are expected to weaken modestly on Thu. Low pressure will develop across the northern Gulf of California Thu through Fri to induce moderate to fresh SW to W gap winds across the Gulf basin. NW swell moving through the the north and central Baja California waters tonight will reach the Baja California Sur waters today then fade through Tue. A more significant NW swell is expected to move into the regional waters Tue through Thu, with seas offshore of Baja California Norte building to 8-11 ft Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec has produced seas of 7-8 ft in NW to N swell across the far western waters offshore of Guatemala. Moderate E gap winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend westward to 90W. Seas with these winds are 5-6 ft. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough along 10N, light to gentle winds prevail. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail, where seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell prevail. Seas up to 7 ft in SW swell dominate the waters northwest through east of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will continue across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh at night through Tue. Seas across the area will increase slightly through this morning as SW swell entering the area reaches the nearshore waters. Seas are expected to slowly subside across the region this afternoon through Fri as gentle to moderate winds persist, and small NW and SW swell dominates the area waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1023 mb is analyzed near 29N136W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 24N to the ITCZ, and west of 128W. Seas over this area are 6-8 ft in mixed swell. Light to gentle winds are north of 24N and west of 120W, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range in NW swell. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate northerly winds east of the high center, and east of 120W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift westward through Tue and then west of 140W Wed. The associated anticyclonic wind flow will continue to dominate the waters north of the ITCZ through Mon, then begin to freshen south of 20N and west of 130W Tue night through Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the open waters through Thu. Cross- equatorial swell over the waters south of 15N will gradually decay today through Tue. NW swell that is propagating through the far northwest and north-central waters will begin to decay tonight. A more significant NW swell has just begun to reach 30N140W and the northwest waters late tonight, and will move through the regional waters through Wed night. Seas will reach a peak of about 11 ft along 30N on Tue with this next NW swell event. $$ Stripling