000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N73W to 09.5N95W to low pres 1011 mb near 09N113W to 08.5N132W, then transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 06N E of 87W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 89W and 104W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11.5N between 112W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico and extends southward across eastern Mexico tonight. The pressure gradient between this high pressure ridge and lower pressure within the EPAC monsoon trough is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec that extend offshore to near 13.5N, where seas are in the 8-10 ft range. Elsewhere, weak high pressure ridging extends from a 1022 mb high centered well W of the the Baja California waters near 28N135W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds over the Baja waters north of Punta Eugenia. Seas across this area are in the 7-9 ft range in NW swell. Light to gentle NW to N winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail elsewhere over the Baja California offshore waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds are across Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft or less. Over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in S swell prevail. For the forecast, strong to near-gale gap winds will continue across the Tehuantepec region through Mon, before winds gradually diminish to fresh to strong speeds through Tue morning. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja California Norte waters will spread southward to Cabo San Lazaro through Mon, and then to the Baja California Sur waters on Tue. Winds are expected to weaken modestly on Thu. Building NW swell over the Baja California Norte waters tonight will reach the Baja California Sur waters early Mon. A more significant NW swell is expected to move into the regional waters Tue afternoon through Thu, with seas offshore of Baja California Norte building to 8-11 ft by early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec has produced seas of 7-8 ft in NW to N swell across the far western waters offshore of Guatemala. Moderate NE to E gap winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend westward beyond 90W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail, where seas of 4-6 ft prevail. Seas up to 7 ft in long period SW swell dominate the waters northwest through east of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will continue across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh at night. Seas will increase slightly through tonight as SW swell builds across the area. Seas to 8 ft in NW swell will persist across the far western offshore waters of Guatemala tonight. Seas are expected to slowly subside across the region Mon through the end of the week as gentle to moderate winds persist, and small NW and SW swell move into the area waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1022 mb is analyzed near 28N135W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds south of the high and N of the ITCZ. Seas over this area are in the 6-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, where seas are in the 6-7 ft range in NW swell. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate northerly winds east of the high center, and east of 120W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-9 ft prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift westward through Mon and then shift farther west through Wed. The associated anticyclonic wind flow will continue to dominate the waters north of the ITCZ through Mon, then begin to freshen south of 20N and west of 130W Tue through Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the open waters through Mon. Cross-equatorial swell over the waters south of 15N will gradually decay through Mon. NW swell that is propagating through the far northwest and north-central waters will begin to decay tonight. A more significant NW swell is expected to reach 30N140W and the northwest waters late tonight and move through the regional waters through Wed. Seas will reach a peak of about 11 ft on Tue with this next NW swell event. $$ Stripling