000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122146 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Moderate N to NE winds across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are funneling through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and accelerating over and downstream of the waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This scenario is producing the first fall season gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap region. High pressure extending southward along the Sierra Madre Orientals of Mexico will persist through early Mon, and maintain a tight pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region. This is expected to sustain the ongoing gale- force gap winds through late tonight. Latest satellite scatterometer winds depicts northerly winds to just below gale- force extending to within about 100 nm downstream of the Gulf. Seas with these winds are estimated to be peaking to 12 ft. These winds will soon again reach gale-force, with seas building slightly higher. The pressure gradient should relax on Sun allowing for winds to diminish to fresh to near gale-force over the region through early Mon, and at fresh to strong speeds going into the middle part of the upcoming week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure that is in NW Colombia west-southwestward to 10N86W to 09N94W to low pressure near 08N99W 1011 mb to 08N110W to 09N122W, then transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 90W and 95W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 105W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 90W and 95W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 95W and 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure ridging extends from a 1022 mb high that is centered well W of the the Baja California waters near 29N128W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The related gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh northwest winds over the waters north of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell. Light to gentle northwest to north winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere over the Baja California offshore waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Variable winds less than 10 kt prevail across Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft or less. Over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail, except for moderate winds near Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridging will support moderate northwest winds across the Baja waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia and fresh northwest winds north of Punta Eugenia, including Sebastian Vizcaino Bay through Sun night, then mostly moderate northwest winds through early next week. Winds may briefly reach strong speeds in Sebastian Vizcaino Bay tonight. Slight to moderate seas are expected through Mon night. New northwest swell is expected to begin to reach the area waters early on Sun. This will build seas over the Baja California Norte waters to a peak of about 9 ft through Mon, then diminish slightly through Tue morning. A more significant set of northwest swell is expected to move into the region Tue afternoon through the middle part of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing seas of 6-8 ft in northwest to north swell across the far western waters offshore of Guatemala. Moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds are present across the Gulf of Papagayo region. They extend westward from the Gulf to near 90W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere north of 10N, light to gentle winds prevail. South of 10N, gentle southwest to west winds extend from 90W to the Gulf of Panama and the coast of Colombia, where seas of 3-5 ft prevail. Seas up to 6 ft due to long-period southwest swell are over the waters northwest through east of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and northern Panama. For the forecast, moderate northeast winds are expected over the far western part of the Guatemala offshore waters through Sun afternoon due to the ongoing Tehuantepec strong gap wind event. Seas there will build to around 9 ft in NW swell merging with new SW swell. Moderate gap winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region through Mon. Cross-equatorial south to southwest swell will elevate seas a few feet across the regional waters. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate southwesterly winds will prevail across the offshore waters south of 09N through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1022 mb is analyzed near 29N128W. A ridge extends south-southwestward from this high into the tropics. Meanwhile a weakening frontal boundary crosses 31N140W as it stretches northeastward and southeastward from there. The associated pressure gradient is producing moderate to locally fresh NE trade winds south of 22N to the ITCZ and west of 122W, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere east of 120W to the Mexican offshore waters. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed south and northwest swell continue over the waters north of the ITCZ, except for a new set of northwest swell moving into the far northwest and north-central waters, where seas are 7-9 ft north of 28N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas with these winds are generally 7-10 ft in fresh southerly swell For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will move little through the weekend, then drift westward and strengthen slightly into the middle of next week. The associated anticyclonic wind flow will continue to dominate the waters north of the monsoon trough through early next week. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the open waters through Mon. Cross-equatorial swell across the waters south of 15N will gradually decay through Mon. The set of northwest swell that is propagating through the far northwest and north-central waters will begin to decay early on Sun. A more significant set of northwest swell is expected to reach 30N140W and the northwest waters late Sun night through Tue. Seas may reach a peak of about 11 ft with this next northwest swell event, with seas to 12 ft approaching 30N140W Mon. $$ Aguirre