000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112105 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 11 2024 Corrected Special Features section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE...Corrected Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten between high pressure surging southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains of Mexico and the E Pacific monsoon trough over the weekend. This will lead to northerly gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region starting tonight and continuing through Sat night. Presently, fresh to near gale force northerly winds are supporting seas of 8 to 12 ft. These seas will build to 13 ft this afternoon and to 14 ft Sat. The pressure gradient should relax on Sun allowing for winds to diminish to fresh to near gale force over the region through at least middle part of the upcoming week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in NW Colombia, westward to northern Costa Rica, and continues to a 1010 mb low near 10N95W, then to 09N107W to 09N117W to 08N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N124W to 09N135W and to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the trough between 90W and 98W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 100W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure ridging extends southeastward from a 1019 mb high that is well west of the these waters near 28N131W to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are north of Punta Eugenia. Seas over these waters are 5-7 ft in northwest swell. Seas are 4-6 ft in northwest swell elsewhere over the Baja California offshore waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are elsewhere over the Baja California offshore waters. An overnight ASCAT pass indicated light to gentle southeast to south winds in the Gulf of California. Seas there are 3 ft or less. Higher seas of 3-5 ft in mixed southeast and northwest swell are at the entrance to the Gulf of California. Over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse to gale-force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Sat night, with fresh to near gale force winds continuing through the middle of next week. Seas in Tehuantepec will build up to 14 ft Sat. Meanwhile, a broad ridge will support moderate northwest winds north of Cabo San Lazaro, and slight to moderate seas through Mon night, except for brief fresh to strong winds near Sebastian Vizcaino Bay Sat night. A set of new northwest swell is expected to reach the area waters Sun. This will build seas over the Baja California Norte waters to 8-9 ft through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... An ongoing gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing moderate to locally fresh northerly winds over the far western part of the offshore waters of Guatemala. Seas over these waters are 5-8 ft in northwest swell that is being generated by the gap wind event. Farther south, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Gentle southwest to west winds are in the Gulf of Panama. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are expected over the far western part of the Guatemala offshore waters through the weekend due to the ongoing Tehuantepec gap wind event. Seas with these winds will build to 8-9 ft in northwest swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Moderate to fresh east winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region through Mon. A new set of cross-equatorial south to southwest swell is expected across the region late today and through the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate southwesterly winds will prevail across the offshore waters south of 09N through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient related to a weak high pressure center near 28N131W is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft over waters north of the ITCZ to 26N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas with these winds are generally about 6-8 ft from south swell mixing with northwest swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the weak high pressure will drift southward and settle in the NW waters through the weekend, and continue to dominate the waters north of the monsoon trough through early next week. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the open waters through Mon. Cross-equatorial swell will raise seas to 9 ft as far north as 10N between 100W and 125W today into the weekend. A set of new northwest swell producing seas of 8-9 ft or greater will spread southeast of 30N140W tonight through Sat, decaying thereafter. A more significant set of northwest swell is expected to reach 30N140W and the NW waters late Sun night through Mon. Seas may reach a peak of about 10 ft with this set of northwest swell. $$ Aguirre