000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110907
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Oct 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The pressure gradient will tighten between high pressure 
building along NE Mexico and the E Pacific monsoon trough over 
the weekend. This will lead to northerly gale force winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec gap wind event starting Fri evening and 
continuing through Sat night. Currently, continuous fresh to near
gale force northerly winds are supporting 8 to 12 ft seas, which
are forecast to build to 13 ft today and to 15 ft Sat. Gales 
will diminish Sun, but fresh to near gale force winds will 
continue across the region through at least mid week. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from NE Costa Rica near 11N86W to a 
1011 mb low pres near 10N95W to 09N110W to 09N124W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 09N124W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 14N and E of 
99W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1031 mb high pressure system centered near 28N131W extends 
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to locally fresh 
NW winds north of Punta Eugenia. Seas in these waters are 5-7 
ft. Elsewhere in the Baja California offshore waters and Gulf of 
California, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

In the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse to 
gale-force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri evening through Sat 
night, with fresh to near gale force winds continuing through 
the middle of next week. Seas in Tehuantepec will build up to 15 
ft Sat. Meanwhile, a broad ridge will support moderate NW winds 
north of Cabo San Lazaro, and slight to moderate seas through Mon
night, except for brief fresh to strong winds near Sebastian 
Vizcaino Bay Sat night. New NW swell will reach the area waters 
Sun to raise seas across Baja Norte to around 8 ft through Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An ongoing gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 
producing moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in the far 
offshore waters of Guatemala. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. 
Farther south, moderate southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are 
occurring south of the monsoon trough, including the Gulf of 
Panama. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds are 
expected well offshore Guatemala due to the influence of the 
Tehuantepec gap wind event through the next several days. Seas 
will peak near 9 ft. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse 
nightly in the Papagayo region today and Sat. New cross 
equatorial S to SW swell is expected across the region late today 
through the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate 
southwesterly winds will prevail across the offshore waters south
of 09N through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The weak high pressure system positioned near 28N131W supports 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft in the
waters north of the ITCZ to 26N and west of 120W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft south of the monsoon trough 
and ITCZ. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, the weak ridge will drift southward and settle
in the NW waters through the weekend, and continue to dominate 
the waters north of the monsoon trough through early next week. 
Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the open 
waters through Mon. Cross equatorial swell will raise seas to 9 
ft as far north as 10N between 100W and 125W on Fri. New NW swell
with seas of 8 ft or greater will spread southeast of 30N140W 
Fri night through Sat, decaying thereafter. A more significant NW
swell is expected to reach 30N140W and the NW waters late Sun 
night through Mon.
 
$$
Delgado