000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110357 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0335 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... The pressure gradient will tighten between high pressure building along Mexico and the E Pacific monsoon trough over the weekend. This will lead to pulsing gale force winds in the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event starting Fri evening and continuing through Sat night. Currently, continuous fresh to near gale force northerly winds are supporting 8 to 12 ft seas, which are forecast to build to 13 ft Fri and to 15 Sat. Gales will diminish Sun, but fresh to near gale force winds will continue across the region through at least mid week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from NE Costa Rica near 11N86W to a 1011 mb low pres near 10N94W to 11N110W to 09N123W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N123W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N and E of 97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad subtropical ridge located well west of Baja California Norte extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge supports moderate NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere in the Baja California offshore waters and Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. In the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse to gale-force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri evening through Sat night, with fresh to near gale force winds continuing through the middle of next week. Seas in Tehuantepec will build up to 15 ft by Sat. Meanwhile, a broad ridge will support moderate NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro, and slight to moderate seas through Mon night, except for brief fresh to strong winds near Sebastian Vizcaino Bay Sat night. New NW swell will reach the area waters Sun to raise seas across Baja Norte to around 8 ft through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... An ongoing gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in the far offshore waters of Guatemala. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Farther south, moderate southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring south of the monsoon trough, including the Gulf of Panama. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds are expected well offshore Guatemala due to the influence of the Tehuantepec gap wind event through the next several days. Seas will peak near 9 ft. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region Fri and Sat. New cross equatorial S to SW swell is expected across the region late Fri through the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate southwesterly winds will prevail across the offshore waters south of 09N through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The weak high pressure system centered near 31N130W supports mainly moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 5-7 ft in the waters north of 14N and west of 120W. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the weak ridge will drift southward and settle along 29N through the weekend, and continue to dominate the waters north of the monsoon trough through early next week. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the open waters through Mon. Cross equatorial swell will raise seas to 9 ft as far north as 10N between 100W and 125W on Fri. New NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will spread southeast of 30N140W Fri night through Sat, decaying thereafter. A more significant NW swell is expected to reach 30N140W and the NW waters late Sun night through Mon. $$ Delgado