242 
AXPZ20 KNHC 102205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The pressure gradient will increase between high pressure
building along Mexico and the E Pacific monsoon trough over the
weekend. This will lead to pulsing gale force winds in the
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event starting Fri evening
and continuing through early Sun morning. Currently, continuous fresh
to near gale force northerly winds are supporting 8 to 12 ft
seas, which are forecast to build to 13 ft Fri and 15 ft by Sat.
Gales will diminish Sun, but fresh to near gale force winds will
continue across the region through at least mid week. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to a 1011 mb low near
11N93W to 10N116W to 08N123W and then transitions to the ITCZ 
that continues to 10N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 13N E of 106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly winds are across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and extend to about 11N. Seas are estimated at 8 to 
12 ft there. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the 
waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, while light 
to gentle winds prevail southward across the remainder Baja Sur 
waters, SW Mexican offshore waters and along the Gulf of 
California. Seas offshore of SW Mexico are 4 to 5 ft in SW 
swell, while seas off the Baja Peninsula are 4 to 6 ft in NW 
swell. In the Gulf of California seas are 1 to 2 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse 
to gale-force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri evening through
early Sun, with fresh to near gale force winds continuing through 
the middle of next week. Seas in Tehuantepec will build up to 15
ft by Sat. Meanwhile, a broad ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja 
California. This will produce moderate NW winds north of Cabo San
Lazaro, and slight to moderate seas through Mon night, except 
for brief fresh to strong winds near Sebastian Vizcaino Bay Sat 
night. New NW swell will reach the area waters Sun to raise seas 
across Baja Norte to around 8 ft through Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are found north of 09N offshore of the 
coasts between the Papagayo region and Guatemala. S of 09N, 
moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds prevail from offshore 
Colombia to Costa Rica, with moderate SE to S winds from offshore
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across the 
offshore waters in mainly S to SW swell, except NW swell over the 
offshores between Guatemala and Nicaragua due to a gap wind event
in the region of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate southwesterly winds 
will prevail across the offshore waters south of 09N through the
weekend. Winds N of 09N are expected to shift to easterly on 
Friday, with gap winds pulsing moderate to fresh across the 
Papagayo region Fri through Mon. Meanwhile, moderate to locally 
fresh E to NE winds are expected offshore Guatemala Fri due to 
the influence of the Tehuantepec gap wind event and pulsing winds
in the Papagayo region. The gap wind events will also act to 
build the seas offshore Guatemala Fri and through the remainder 
of the weekend. New cross equatorial S to SW swell is expected 
across the region late Fri through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high is centered just north of the area, and extends a
broad and weak ridge south and southeastward across the 
subtropical waters W of 115W. A couple of weak surface troughs 
are north of the monsoon trough, with some isolated showers near 
each feature. Otherwise, the broad ridge is producing mainly 
gentle to moderate trade winds W of 128W and NE to E winds of the
same speed over the subtropical waters. Gentle to moderate south
to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 
mainly 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, this weak high pressure will drift southward
and settle along about 29W through the weekend, and continue to 
dominate the waters north of the monsoon trough through early 
next week. Meanwhile the weak surface troughs will gradually 
shift west of 140W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
across the open waters through Mon. New cross equatorial 
southerly swell continue to cross the equator this morning, and 
will raise seas to 8 to 9 ft seas as far north as 10N between 
100W and 125W on Fri. New NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater 
will spread southeast of 30N140W Fri night through Sat, decaying 
thereafter. A more significant NW swell is expected to reach 
30N140W and the NW waters late Sun night through Mon.
 
$$
Ramos