288 AXPZ20 KNHC 101602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 11N110W to 10N120W and then transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 09N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N E of 106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NW to N winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extend to about 12N. Seas are estimated at 6 to 9 ft there. Moderate NW to N winds prevail across the waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, while light to gentle winds prevail southward across the remainder Baja Sur waters, SW Mexican offshore waters and along the Gulf of California. Seas offshore of SW Mexico are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell, while seas off the Baja Peninsula are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell. Otherwise, a 1009 mb low, remnant of Invest EP99, is south of Los Cabos with isolated showers. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds will pulse strong to near gale-force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through the middle of next week, as northerly winds persist across the southwest Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of Hurricane Milton now over the offshore waters of NE Florida. Seas in Tehuantepec will build to 10 ft Fri night through Mon. Meanwhile, a broad ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California. This will produce moderate NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro, and slight to moderate seas through Mon night, except for brief fresh to strong winds near Sebastian Vizcaino Bay Sat night. New NW swell will reach the area waters Sun to raise seas across Baja Norte to around 8 ft through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are found north of 09N offshore of the coasts between the Papagayo region and Guatemala. S of 09N, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds prevail from offshore Colombia to Costa Rica, with moderate SE to S winds from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in mainly S to SW swell, except NW swell over the offshores between Guatemala and Nicaragua due to a gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate southwesterly winds will prevail across the offshore waters south of 09N through the weekend. Winds N of 09N are expected to shift to easterly on Friday, with gap winds pulsing moderate to fresh across the Papagayo region Fri through Mon. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds are expected offshore Guatemala Fri due to the influence of the Tehuantepec gap wind event and pulsing winds in the Papagayo region. The gap wind events will also act to build the seas offshore Guatemala Fri and through the remainder of the weekend. New cross equatorial S to SW swell is expected across the region late Fri through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1021 mb high is centered just north of the area near 31N131W, and extends a broad and weak ridge south and southeastward across the subtropical waters W of 115W. A couple of weak surface troughs are north of the monsoon trough, with some isolated showers near each feature. Otherwise, the broad ridge is producing mainly gentle to moderate trade winds W of 128W and NE to E winds of the same speed over the subtropical waters. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, this weak high pressure will drift southward and settle along about 29W through the weekend, and continue to dominate the waters north of the monsoon trough through early next week. Meanwhile the weak surface troughs will gradually shift west of 140W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the open waters through Mon. New cross equatorial southerly swell continue to cross the equator this morning, and will raise seas to 8 to 9 ft seas as far north as 10N between 100W and 125W on Fri. New NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will spread southeast of 30N140W Fri night through Sat, decaying thereafter. A more significant NW swell is expected to reach 30N140W and the NW waters late Sun night through Mon. $$ Ramos