000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100856 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N72W to 12.5N87W to 12N114W to 10N121W, then transitions to ITCZ and continues to 09N125W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N E of 79W, from 06.5N to 13N between 81W and 95W, and from 05.5N to 09N between 95W and 106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms extend from within 75 nm of the Mexican coast of Nayarit northward to central Sinaloa. Meanwhile, an elongated area of low pressure near 21N 109W 1008 mb, Invest EP99, continues to move slowly northwestward, and has become separated from the shower and thunderstorm activity. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed peak winds of 15 kt across the western semicircle of the low, with seas there to 5 ft. This area of low pressure has missed its window of opportunity to become better organized and intensify, and instead will continue to move slowly NW and weaken over the next few days. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NW to N winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extend about 120 nm offshore. Seas are estimated at 6 to 8 ft there. Moderate NW to N winds prevail across the waters of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, while light to gentle NW winds prevail southward across the Baja Sur waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas offshore of Baja are 4 to 6 ft in converging SW and NW swells, except 7 to 8 ft west through northwest of Isla Guadalupe. Scattered moderate thunderstorms have moved into the waters within 60 nm of the coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds will pulse strong to near gale-force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through the middle of next week, as northerly winds persist across the southwest Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of Hurricane Milton. Seas there will build to 8 to 10 ft Fri night through Mon. Meanwhile, a broad ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California. This will produce moderate NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro, and slight to moderate seas through Mon night, except for brief fresh to strong winds near Sebastian Vizcaino Bay Sat night. New NW swell will reach the area waters Sun to raise seas across Baja Norte to around 8 ft through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are found north of 10N offshore of the coasts between the Papagayo region and El Salvador, with moderate W to NW winds well offshore of Guatemala due to a gap wind event to the west over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. S of 10N, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds prevail from offshore Colombia to Costa Rica, with moderate SE to S winds from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in mainly S to SW swell, except NW seas offshore of western Guatemala due to the Tehuantepec winds. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate southwesterly winds will prevail across the offshore waters south of 10N through the weekend. Winds N of 10N are expected to shift to easterly on Friday, with gap winds pulsing moderate to fresh across the Papagayo region Fri through Mon. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds E to NE winds are expected offshore Guatemala Fri due to the influence of the Tehuantepec gap wind event. This gap event will also act to build the seas offshore Guatemala through the remainder of the week into the weekend. New cross equatorial S to SW swell is expected across the region late Fri through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high is centered just north of the area near 32N132W, and extends a broad and weak ridge south and southeastward across the regional waters. A couple of weak surface troughs are north of the monsoon trough, with some isolated showers near each feature. The westernmost trough extends from 18N to 26N along 138W. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate winds on both sides of the surface trough, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Otherwise, the broad ridge is producing mainly gentle to moderate trade winds. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, this weak high pressure will drift southward and settle along about 29W through the weekend, and continue to dominate the waters north of the monsoon trough through early next week. Meanwhile the weak surface troughs will gradually shift west of 140W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the open waters through Mon. New cross equatorial southerly swell is crossing the equator this morning, and will raise seas to 8 to 9 ft seas as far north as 10N between 100W and 125W on Fri. New NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will spread southeast of 30N140W Fri night through Sat, decaying thereafter. A more significant NW swell is expected to reach 30N140W and the NW waters late Sun night through Mon. $$ Stripling