000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Gulf of Fonseca near 11N86W 
to 14N104W to 11N116W to 08N127W. The ITCZ begins near 08N127W 
and continues beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 05N to 14N E of 103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized in association 
with an elongated area of low pressure, Invest EP99, located a 
couple hundred miles southeast of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula. An earlier ASCAT pass showed moderate to  
fresh winds in the northern semicircle of the low and seas are up
to 5 ft. Scattered moderate convection ia ongoing from 20N to 
24N at the entrance of the Gulf of California. Meanwhile, fresh 
to strong NW to N winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are estimated at 6 ft
there. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the offshore
waters of Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in converging SW and NW 
swells. 

For the forecast, by tonight, increasing upper-level winds and 
dry air should end the chances for any further development of
Invest EP99 as the disturbance drifts toward the northwest or 
north-northwest. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas building at times to 8
to 10 ft through Mon. Meanwhile, a ridge will remain in control 
of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja 
California. This will produce moderate to locally fresh NW winds
N of Cabo San Lazaro and slight to moderate seas through Mon 
night, except for brief fresh to strong winds near Sebastian 
Vizcaino Bay Sat night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are found north of 10N offshore
between Nicaragua and El Salvador, with moderate to locally fresh
W to NW winds offshore Guatemala due to a gap wind event to the 
west over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh SW winds 
prevail from offshore Colombia to Costa Rica, with moderate SE to
S winds from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Seas are
4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in mainly S to SW swell, 
except NW swell offshore Guatemala due to the Tehuantepec winds.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will
prevail across the offshore waters, pulsing to moderate to 
fresh from the Papagayo region northward late tonight onward. 
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds could occur offshore 
Guatemala through today due to the influence of the Tehuantepec 
gap wind event. This gap event will also act to build the seas 
offshore Guatemala through the remainder of the week into the 
weekend. Moderate seas in long period S to SW swell are expected 
across the area. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A couple of weak surface troughs are north of the monsoon trough
with some isolated showers near each feature. The westernmost
trough extends from 17N to 23N and is along 136W. Recent ASCAT
show moderate to fresh NE winds NW of the surface trough and seas
are to 7 ft. Otherwise, a broad ridge extends from NW to SE 
across the waters north of the monsoon trough with mainly gentle 
to moderate trades. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south
of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the 
remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the  
waters north of the monsoon trough through the remainder of the
week and weekend while the weak surface troughs gradually push
west of 140W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
the open waters during these days. Southerly swell will move 
across the southern waters by late tonight, bringing 8 to 9 ft 
seas as far north as 07N between 100W and 125W. Looking ahead,  
NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater may spread southeast of 
30N140W Fri night through Sat, decaying thereafter. Another set 
of NW swell may reach 30N140W Sun night.
 
$$
Ramos