000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Oct 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):

Showers and thunderstorms have decreased in coverage and intensity 
over the past several hours in association with a weak area of low 
pressure of 1006 mb near 19N107W or about 125 miles southwest of
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. A tropical depression could still form 
over the next day or so as the system moves slowly north- 
northwestward to northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of 
Mexico. By late Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast to 
become unfavorable, and further development is not expected after
that time. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico 
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of 
development, the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to 
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
This system has a medium chance of formation during the next 48 
hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to the EP99 1006 mb low 
pres near 19N107W to 09N120W to 1011 mb low pres near 08N138W to
beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection described above with 
Invest EP99, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 
10N E of 102W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Invest EP99 located about 125 miles southwest of Puerto 
Vallarta, Mexico

High pressure of 1022 mb located NW of the area near 31N142W has
an associated ridge that stretches just west of the offshore 
forecast waters of Baja California. This is supporting gentle to 
locally moderate NW winds N of Punta Eugenia and light to gentle
winds southward to Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell
prevail across the area. Light to gentle winds are present along 
the Gulf of California where seas are 1 to 2 ft, except to 3 ft 
near the entrance of the Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NNW winds
are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec reaching to 13N93W with 
5-6 seas. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, outside 
of Invest EP99, light to gentle winds are observed with seas of 4
to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed. Then, consistent fresh to 
strong winds and moderate to rough seas will begin Wed night and 
continue through the weekend as northerly flow establishes over 
the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of Hurricane Milton 
located NE of the area. Meanwhile, a ridge will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja 
California. This will produce moderate NW winds N of Punta
Eugenia and slight to moderate seas through Sun night. Seas 
could build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia tonight and 
Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate NW winds are ongoing across the offshore
waters between Nicaragua and Guatemala with moderate seas to 5
ft. Elsewhere across the remainder Central American offshore
waters, gentle to moderate SW to W winds are noted with 4-6 ft
seas. Between the Galapagos Islands and the coast of Ecuador, SE
to S gentle to moderate winds are ongoing with moderate seas in
SW swell. 

For the forecast, mostly gentle to locally moderate winds are 
forecast across the offshore waters from Guatemala to northern 
Costa Rica through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
could occur offshore Guatemala through Wed due to the influence 
of a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. This gap event will also
act to increase the seas across the Guatemala offshores most of 
the week. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail elsewhere
through the weekend with locally fresh winds possible along the 
Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters toward the end of the week.
Moderate seas in long period SW swell are expected across the 
area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high center analyzed N of the area near 31N142W 
dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 15N and W of
120W. Low pressure of 1011 mb is along the monsoon trough near 
09N138W.Mainly moderate NE winds are occurring N of 20N and W of
120W with seas to 9 ft in NW swell. Moderate NE to E winds are
ongoing N of the monsoon to 20N and W of 137W with moderate seas. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the 
north waters through at least Wed producing a gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow. The pressure gradient between the associated 
ridge and the 1011 mb low along the monsoon trough should 
continue to support the moderate to locally fresh NE winds N of 
the low through tonight, at which time the low weakens. 
Northwesterly swell will bring seas to 8 ft as far south as 21N 
between 120W and 137W through Wed night. Meanwhile, southerly 
swell will move across the southern waters by Thu, bringing 8 to 
9 ft seas as far north as 07N between 100W and 125W. 
 
$$
Ramos