694 
AXPZ20 KNHC 081605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located about 150 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico, have changed 
little in organization since yesterday. The 1006 mb low pressure
system is located near 19N106W with scattered moderate 
convection noted from 18N to 21N between 103W and 108W. Seas are
near 8 ft in the vicinity of the low. Only a small increase in 
organization could result in the formation of a tropical 
depression during the next day or so. By late Wednesday, upper- 
level winds are forecast to become more unfavorable, and further 
development is not expected. The system is forecast to move 
slowly north-northwestward to northwestward, roughly parallel to 
the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, the disturbance 
could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern 
Mexico during the next couple of days. This system has a high 
chance of formation during the next 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to the EP99 1006 mb low 
pres near 19N106W to 10N119W to 1011 mb low pres near 09N137W to
beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection described above with 
Invest EP99, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 
09N E of 101W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Invest EP99 located about 150 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico

High pressure of 1022 mb located NW of the area near 30N143W has
an associated ridge that stretches just west of the offshore 
forecast waters of Baja California. This is supporting gentle to 
locally moderate NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and light to 
gentle winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 
4 to 5 ft in NW swell prevail across the area. Generally, light 
to gentle SE winds are present over the Gulf of California S of
28N with locally moderate SE winds N of 28N. Seas there are 1 to
2 ft, except to 3 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. Fresh to
strong NNW winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec reaching
to 13N92W with 5-6 seas. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 
waters, outside of Invest EP99, light to gentle winds are observed
with seas of 4 to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into Wed. Consistent fresh to strong 
winds and moderate to rough seas will begin Wed night and 
continue through the weekend as northerly flow establishes over 
the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of Hurricane Milton 
located NE of the area. Meanwhile, a ridge will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja 
California. This will produce moderate NW winds N of Cabo San 
Lazaro and slight to moderate seas through Wed night. Seas could 
build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia tonight and Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate NW winds are ongoing across the offshore
waters between Nicaragua and Guatemala with moderate seas to 5
ft. Elsewhere across the remainder Central American offshore
waters, gentle to moderate SW to W winds are noted with 4-6 ft
seas. Between the Galapagos Islands and the coast of Ecuador, SE
to S gentle to moderate winds are ongoing with moderate seas in
SW swell. 

For the forecast, mostly gentle SW to W winds are forecast 
across the offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica 
through most of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds could 
occur offshore Guatemala today through Wed due to the influence 
of a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Gentle to moderate S to
SW winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week 
with locally fresh winds possible along the Costa Rica and Panama
offshore waters toward the end of the week. Moderate seas in 
long period SW swell are expected across the area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high center analyzed N of the area near 30N143W 
dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 
110W. Low pressure of 1011 mb is along the monsoon trough near 
09N137W. Moderate NE winds are occurring within about 150 nm N 
of the low. Seas with these winds are 7 to 8 ft. Moderate to 
fresh NE winds are also occurring east of the high pressure N of 
20N and W of 125W. Seas are near 8 ft in this area. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the 
north waters through at least Wed producing a gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow. The pressure gradient between the associated 
ridge and the 1009 mb low along the monsoon trough should 
continue to support the moderate to locally fresh NE winds N of 
the low through tonight, at which time the low weakens. 
Northwesterly swell will bring seas to 8 ft as far south as 21N 
between 120W and 137W today through Wed night. Meanwhile, 
southerly swell will move across the southern waters by Thu, 
bringing 8 to 9 ft seas as far north as 07N between 100W and 
125W. 
 
$$
Ramos