479 
AXPZ20 KNHC 080912
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Oct 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 100 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico have changed
little in organization. The 1007 mb low pressure system is
located near 19N106W with scattered moderate convection noted
from 17N to 23N between 105W and 108W. Seas are near 8 ft in the
vicinity of the low. Environmental conditions appear somewhat 
favorable for additional development and only a small increase in
organization could result in the formation of a tropical 
depression on Tuesday. The system is forecast to move slowly 
north- northwestward to northwestward, roughly parallel to the 
coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of 
development, the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to 
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. 
This system has a high chance of formation during the next 48 
hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the southwest coast of Mexico 
near 18N104W to 1007 mb low pres near 19N106W to 10N125W to 1010 
mb low pres near 10N137W to beyond 11N140W. Aside from the 
convection described above with Invest EP99, scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 135W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Invest EP99 located about 100 nm west of Manzanillo, Mexico.

High pressure of 1022 mb located N of the area near 30N145W has 
an associated ridge that stretches over the offshore forecast 
waters of Baja California. This is supporting gentle to moderate 
NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and light to gentle winds between 
Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 4 to 5 ft in NW swell
prevail across the area. Generally, light and variable winds are
present over the Gulf of California. Seas there are 1 to 2 ft, 
except for higher seas to 3 ft in mixed SW and NW near the 
entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 
waters, outside of Invest EP99, moderate to fresh NW winds are 
likely occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle 
winds observed over the rest of the southern Mexico offshore
waters with seas of 4 to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds could pulse across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into Wed. Consistent fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas will begin Wed night and 
continue through at least Sat night as northerly flow 
establishes over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of 
Hurricane Milton located NE of the area. Meanwhile, a ridge will 
remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore 
waters of Baja California. This will produce moderate NW winds N
of Cabo San Lazaro and slight to moderate seas through Wed 
night. Seas could build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia 
tonight and Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are noted N of 06N while gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail between the Galapagos Islands 
offshore waters to 06N. Seas are in general 4 to 6 ft in S to SW
swell across the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
over the Central America offshore waters in addition to offshore
Colombia. 

For the forecast, mostly gentle SW to W winds are forecast 
across the offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica 
through most of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds could 
occur offshore Guatemala today through Wed due to the influence 
of a Gulf of Tehuantepec event. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week with 
locally fresh winds possible along the Costa Rica and Panama 
offshore waters toward the end of the week. Moderate seas in long
period SW swell are expected across the area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high center analyzed N of the area near 30N145W 
dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 
110W. Low pressure of 1010 mb is along the monsoon trough near 
10N137W. Moderate NE winds are occurring within about 150 nm N 
of the low. Seas with these winds are 7 to 8 ft. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are also occurring east of the high pressure N of
20N and W of 125W. Seas are near 8 ft in this area. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the 
north waters through at least Wed producing a gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow. The pressure gradient between the associated 
ridge and the 1010 mb low along the monsoon trough should 
continue to support the moderate to locally fresh NE winds N of 
the low through tonight, at which time the low weakens. 
Northwesterly swell will bring seas to 8 ft as far south as 21N 
between 120W and 137W today through Wed night. Meanwhile, 
southerly swell will move across the southern waters by Thu, 
bringing 8 to 9 ft seas as far north as 07N between 100W and 
125W. 
 
$$
AReinhart