000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080321
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Oct 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located less than 150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have
changed little in organization this afternoon. The 1007 mb low
pressure system is located near 18N106W with scattered moderate
convection noted from 17N to 20N between 105W and 107W. Seas are
near 8 ft in the vicinity of the low. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for some additional development and only a small
increase in organization could result in the formation of a
tropical depression tonight or tomorrow. The system is forecast
to move slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. This system has a
high chance of formation during the next 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the southwest coast of Mexico near
18N102W to 1007 mb low pres near 18N106W to 10N123W to 1010 mb
low pres near 10N136W to beyond 11N140W. Aside from the
convection described above with Invest EP99, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 92W and 97W and from
06N to 09N between 134W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Invest EP99 located about 150 nm southwest of Manzanillo, 
Mexico.

High pressure of 1022 mb located N of the area near 30N142W has 
an associated ridge that stretches over the offshore forecast 
waters of Baja California. This is supporting gentle to moderate 
NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and gentle to locally moderate 
winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 4 to 5 
ft in NW swell prevail across the area. Generally, light and 
variable winds are present over the Gulf of California. Seas 
there are 1 to 2 ft, except for higher seas to 3 ft in mixed SW 
and NW near the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere across the 
Mexican offshore waters, outside of Invest EP99, light to gentle 
winds are observed with seas of 4 to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW 
swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds could pulse across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night into Wed. Consistent fresh to 
strong winds and moderate to rough seas will begin Wed night and 
continue through the end of the week as northerly flow 
establishes over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of 
Hurricane Milton located NE of the area. Meanwhile, a ridge will 
remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore 
waters of Baja California. This will produce moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and slight to moderate seas 
through Wed night. Seas could build to 8 ft in NW swell N of 
Punta Eugenia Tue night and Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are noted N of 07N while gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail between the Galapagos Islands
offshore waters to 07N. Seas are in general 4 to 6 ft in S to SW
swell across the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
over most of the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and 
Colombia. 

For the forecast, mostly gentle SW to W winds are forecast 
across the offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica 
through most of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds could 
occur offshore Guatemala Tue into early Wed due to the influence 
of a Gulf of Tehuantepec event. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week with 
locally fresh winds possible along the Costa Rica and Panama 
offshore waters toward the end of the week. Moderate seas in 
long period SW swell are expected across the area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high center analyzed N of the area near 30N142W 
dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 
110W. Low pressure of 1010 mb is along the monsoon trough near 
09N136W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are likely occurring 
within about 120 nm N of the low. Seas with these winds are 7 to 
8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the 
north waters through at least Wed producing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow. The pressure gradient between the associated 
ridge and the 1010 mb low along the monsoon trough should
continue to support the moderate to fresh NE winds N of the 
low through late Tue, at which time the low weakens. Southerly
swell will move across the southern waters by Thu, bringing 8 to
9 ft seas as far north as 07N between 100W and 125W. 
 
$$
AReinhart