000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072137 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 07 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Numerous strong convection associated with an area of low pressure located about 110 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have increased during the past several hours, but remain disorganized. The low center currently being analyzed is of 1007 mb near 18N106W. The observed convection is of the numerous moderate to isolated strong type intensity from 17N to 20N between 104W and 108W. Winds just to the NW of the low, and moderate to fresh winds are over most of the western half of the low pressure area per the latest scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas are in the range of 6 to 7 ft between the low and the coast of Mexico. These seas are likely to reach 8 to 9 ft tonight, possibly slightly higher if the low strengthens. Environmental appear favorable for some additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. This system has a high chance of formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends off the southwest coast of Mexico near 18N102W, and continues to low pressure of 1007 mb near 18N105W, and to 09N115W to 09N125W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 10N135W and to 10N140W. Aside from the convection described above with Invest EP99, numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 133W and 137W and within 180 nm south of the trough between 137W and 140W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 78W and 91W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Invest EP99 located about 110 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. High pressure of 1024 mb located N of the area near 33N133W has an associated ridge that stretches over the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and gentle to locally moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 4 to 5 ft in NW swell prevail across the area. Generally. light and variable winds are present over the Gulf of California. Seas there are 1 to 2 ft, except for higher seas of 3 to 4 ft in mixed SW and NW near the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, outside of Invest EP99, light to gentle winds are observed with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California. This will produce moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and slight to moderate seas through Wed night. Seas could build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night and Wed. Fresh to strong N winds could pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night into Wed. Consistent fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected to begin Wed night and continue through the end of the week as northerly flow establishes over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of Hurricane Milton located NE of the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are noted N of 07N while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail between the Galapagos Islands offshore waters to 07N. Seas are in general 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and in the coastal waters of Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over most of the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within about 120 nm off the coasts of Nicaragua and El Salvador. For the forecast, mostly gentle SW to W winds are forecast across the offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica through most of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds could occur offshore Guatemala Tue into early Wed due to the influence of a Gulf of Tehuantepec event. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week with locally fresh winds possible along the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters toward the end of the week. Moderate seas in long period SW swell are expected across the area. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1024 mb high center analyzed N of the area near 33N133W dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 110W. Low pressure of 1010 mb is along the monsoon trough near 10N135W. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes near the low depict moderate to fresh NE winds within about 120 nm N of the low. Seas with these winds are 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the north waters through at least Wed producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the 1010 mb low along the monsoon trough should continue to support the moderate to fresh NE winds N of the low through late Tue, at which time the low weakens. $$ Aguirre