000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072113 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 07 2024

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Central America, 
Colombia, and Within 750 nm of Ecuador section 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Numerous strong convection associated with an area of low
pressure located about 110 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico have increased during the past several hours, but remain
disorganized. The convection is noted to be within 60 nm of the
low in the E semicircle, and within 120 nm of the low within the
W semicircle. Overnight scatterometer data overnight depicted
moderate to fresh winds north of the low, with seas likely 6 to 7
ft. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in the next day or two while it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. This
system has a high chance of formation during the next 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the southwest coast of 
Mexico near 18N102W, and continues to low pressure of 1008 mb
near 17N105W, and to 10N110W to 07N121W to low pressure near
11N132W 1011 mb and to a 1010 mb low near 14N140W. Aside from 
the convection described above with EP99, scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough 
between 137W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
60 nm south of the trough between 130W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information Invest
EP99 located about 110 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

High pressure of 1023 mb located N of the area near 33N133W has 
an associated ridge that stretches over the offshore forecast 
waters of Baja California. This is supporting gentle to moderate 
NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and gentle to locally moderate 
winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 4 to 5 
ft within NW swell prevail across the area. Generally. light and 
variable winds are present over the Gulf of California. Seas 
there are 1 to 2 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near the entrance to the 
Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, outside of 
EP99, light to gentle winds are observed with seas of 4 to 6 ft 
within mixed NW and SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California. This will
produce moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro
and slight to moderate seas through Wed night. Seas could build 
to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night and Wed. Fresh 
to strong N winds could pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Tue night into Wed. Consistent fresh to strong winds and 
moderate to rough seas are expected to begin Wed night and 
continue through the end of the week as northerly flow 
establishes over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of 
Hurricane Milton located NE of the area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected

Light and variable winds are noted N of 07N while gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail between the Galapagos Islands
offshore waters to 07N. Seas are in general 3 to 5 ft in S to SW
swell, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and in the 
coastal waters of Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are over most of the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and 
Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
within about 120 nm off the coasts of Nicaragua and El Salvador.

For the forecast, mostly gentle SW to W winds are forecast 
across the offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica
through most of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds could 
occur offshore Guatemala Tue into early Wed due to the influence 
of a Gulf of Tehuantepec event. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds
will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week with
locally fresh winds possible along the Costa Rica and Panama
offshore waters toward the end of the week. Moderate seas in 
long period SW swell are expected across the area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb high center analyzed N of the area near 33N133W 
dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 
110W. A pair of low pressure centers are along the monsoon trough
W of 130W. Overnight scatterometer confirmed fresh winds near 
the 1011 low near 11N132W with seas near 8 ft. Moderate to fresh 
winds and seas 8 to 9 ft are likely occurring near the 
westernmost low of pressure 1010 mb near 14N140W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the 
north waters through at least Wed producing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow. The pressure gradient between the associated 
ridge and the low pressure centers along the monsoon trough will 
support a small area of moderate to fresh winds mainly in the N 
semicircle of the low centers through tonight.

$$
Aguirre